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New Zealand tour of England · 2026 · Men
25 Jun 2026 · Test
Trent Bridge · Venue photographRecorded result
England more likely to win
Model tested on 119 past Tests it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings, plus how often Tests at this ground end in a draw. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Innings 3
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Tom Lathamlbw · Jofra Archer1 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Jofra Archer | 4 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 66.67 |
| Devon Conwaycaught · Joe Root · Jofra Archer 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Joe Root · b Jofra Archer | 5 | 16 | 0 | 0 | 31.25 |
| Henry Nichollscaught · Harry Brook · Gus Atkinson 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Harry Brook · b Gus Atkinson | 16 | 41 | 1 | 0 | 39.02 |
 Rachin Ravindralbw · Shoaib Bashir12 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Shoaib Bashir |
| 94 |
| 149 |
| 12 |
| 0 |
| 63.09 |
| Daryl Mitchellnot out 10 fours · 1 sixes | not out | 100* | 241 | 10 | 1 | 41.49 |
|---|
 Tom Blundellcaught · Emilio Gay · Jofra Archer3 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Emilio Gay · b Jofra Archer | 18 | 24 | 3 | 0 | 75.00 |
|---|
| Mitchell Santnercaught · Jamie Smith · Ben Stokes 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Jamie Smith · b Ben Stokes | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Nathan Smithcaught · Jamie Smith · Jofra Archer 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Jamie Smith · b Jofra Archer | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 20.00 |
|---|
| Zakary Foulkescaught · Harry Brook · Ben Stokes 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Harry Brook · b Ben Stokes | 6 | 41 | 0 | 0 | 14.63 |
|---|
| Ben Searsnot out 2 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 19* | 40 | 2 | 0 | 47.50 |
|---|
 William O’Rourkelbw · Gus Atkinson0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Gus Atkinson | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 9 · legbyes: 10 · wides: 1 · noballs: 5 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Jofra Archer4 maidens · 0 wides · 4 no-balls | 20.0 | 4 | 53 | 4 | 2.65 | 0 | 4 |
| Gus Atkinson6 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 22.0 | 6 | 50 | 2 | 2.27 | 1 | 0 |
| Josh Tongue0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 14.0 | 0 | 75 | 0 | 5.36 | 0 | 0 |
| Shoaib Bashir1 maidens · 0 wides · 1 no-balls | 13.0 | 1 | 42 | 1 | 3.23 | 0 | 1 |
 Ben Stokes5 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 25.0 | 5 | 49 | 2 | 1.96 | 0 | 0 |
1-4 (Tom Latham, 1.0) · 2-12 (Devon Conway, 5.0) · 3-51 (Henry Nicholls, 14.1) · 4-180 (Rachin Ravindra, 58.4) · 5-204 (Tom Blundell, 67.0) · 6-205 (Mitchell Santner, 67.4) · 7-206 (Nathan Smith, 68.3) · 8-224 (Zakary Foulkes, 81.1) · 9-279 (William O’Rourke, 91.3)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | 4/1 |
| 2 | 1 | 5/1 |
| 3 | 1 | 6/1 |
| 4 | 2 | 8/1 |
| 5 | 4 | 12/2 |
| 6 | 11 | 23/2 |
| 7 | 1 | 24/2 |
| 8 | 5 | 29/2 |
| 9 | 2 | 31/2 |
| 10 | 1 | 32/2 |
| 11 | 4 | 36/2 |
| 12 | 8 | 44/2 |
| 13 | 0 | 44/2 |
| 14 | 7 | 51/2 |
| 15 | 4 | 55/3 |
| 16 | 9 | 64/3 |
| 17 | 0 | 64/3 |
| 18 | 7 | 71/3 |
| 19 | 3 | 74/3 |
| 20 | 0 | 74/3 |
| 21 | 8 | 82/3 |
| 22 | 2 | 84/3 |
| 23 | 0 | 84/3 |
| 24 | 2 | 86/3 |
| 25 | 2 | 88/3 |
| 26 | 3 | 91/3 |
| 27 | 4 | 95/3 |
| 28 | 1 | 96/3 |
| 29 | 0 | 96/3 |
| 30 | 2 | 98/3 |
| 31 | 9 | 107/3 |
| 32 | 2 | 109/3 |
| 33 | 1 | 110/3 |
| 34 | 9 | 119/3 |
| 35 | 1 | 120/3 |
| 36 | 2 | 122/3 |
| 37 | 1 | 123/3 |
| 38 | 0 | 123/3 |
| 39 | 2 | 125/3 |
| 40 | 2 | 127/3 |
| 41 | 0 | 127/3 |
| 42 | 6 | 133/3 |
| 43 | 0 | 133/3 |
| 44 | 1 | 134/3 |
| 45 | 6 | 140/3 |
| 46 | 1 | 141/3 |
| 47 | 4 | 145/3 |
| 48 | 1 | 146/3 |
| 49 | 5 | 151/3 |
| 50 | 1 | 152/3 |
| 51 | 6 | 158/3 |
| 52 | 0 | 158/3 |
| 53 | 3 | 161/3 |
| 54 | 1 | 162/3 |
| 55 | 1 | 163/3 |
| 56 | 1 | 164/3 |
| 57 | 10 | 174/3 |
| 58 | 4 | 178/3 |
| 59 | 2 | 180/4 |
| 60 | 0 | 180/4 |
| 61 | 4 | 184/4 |
| 62 | 5 | 189/4 |
| 63 | 0 | 189/4 |
| 64 | 1 | 190/4 |
| 65 | 5 | 195/4 |
| 66 | 1 | 196/4 |
| 67 | 8 | 204/5 |
| 68 | 2 | 206/6 |
| 69 | 0 | 206/7 |
| 70 | 2 | 208/7 |
| 71 | 1 | 209/7 |
| 72 | 1 | 210/7 |
| 73 | 1 | 211/7 |
| 74 | 4 | 215/7 |
| 75 | 0 | 215/7 |
| 76 | 0 | 215/7 |
| 77 | 3 | 218/7 |
| 78 | 2 | 220/7 |
| 79 | 1 | 221/7 |
| 80 | 1 | 222/7 |
| 81 | 2 | 224/7 |
| 82 | 1 | 225/8 |
| 83 | 9 | 234/8 |
| 84 | 2 | 236/8 |
| 85 | 5 | 241/8 |
| 86 | 8 | 249/8 |
| 87 | 11 | 260/8 |
| 88 | 2 | 262/8 |
| 89 | 3 | 265/8 |
| 90 | 5 | 270/8 |
| 91 | 8 | 278/8 |
| 92 | 1 | 279/9 |
| 93 | 4 | 283/9 |
| 94 | 5 | 288/9 |
Harry Brook: Dave Morton · Public domain
Jofra Archer: Ben Sutherland from Crystal Palace, London, UK · CC BY 2.0
Ben Duckett: Charltonkyle · CC BY-SA 4.0
Jamie Smith: Dave Morton · Public domain
Joe Root: Dave Morton · Public domain
William O’Rourke: Dave Morton · Public domain
Rachin Ravindra: JaumeBG · CC BY-SA 4.0
Tom Latham: Robert Drummond · CC0
Ben Stokes: NAPARAZZI · CC BY-SA 2.0
Tom Blundell: www.davidmolloyphotography.com · CC BY 2.0
Blair Tickner: Dave Morton · Public domain
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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