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New Zealand tour of England · 2026 · Men
25 Jun 2026 · Test
Trent Bridge · Venue photographRecorded result
England more likely to win
Model tested on 119 past Tests it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings, plus how often Tests at this ground end in a draw. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Innings 4
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Ben Duckettcaught · Daryl Mitchell · Ben Sears6 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Daryl Mitchell · b Ben Sears | 36 | 42 | 6 | 0 | 85.71 |
 Ben Stokescaught · Daryl Mitchell · Zakary Foulkes2 fours · 2 sixes | caught · Daryl Mitchell · b Zakary Foulkes | 30 | 20 | 2 | 2 | 150.00 |
| Jacob Bethelllbw · Zakary Foulkes 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Zakary Foulkes | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
 |
| caught · Nathan Smith · b Zakary Foulkes |
| 21 |
| 9 |
| 3 |
| 1 |
| 233.33 |
 Joe Rootrun out · Henry Nicholls · Nathan Smith3 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Henry Nicholls | 18 | 17 | 3 | 0 | 105.88 |
|---|
| Emilio Gaycaught · Tom Blundell · Nathan Smith 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Tom Blundell · b Nathan Smith | 10 | 17 | 1 | 0 | 58.82 |
|---|
 Jamie Smithcaught · Nathan Smith · Mitchell Santner8 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Nathan Smith · b Mitchell Santner | 60 | 91 | 8 | 1 | 65.93 |
|---|
| Gus Atkinsonlbw · Mitchell Santner 2 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Mitchell Santner | 19 | 70 | 2 | 0 | 27.14 |
|---|
 Jofra Archercaught · Tom Blundell · Nathan Smith0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Tom Blundell · b Nathan Smith | 2 | 19 | 0 | 0 | 10.53 |
|---|
| Josh Tonguerun out · Mitchell Santner · Nathan Smith 0 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Mitchell Santner | 2 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 14.29 |
|---|
| Shoaib Bashirnot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 0* | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 12 · legbyes: 2 · wides: 0 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nathan Smith4 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 16.0 | 4 | 64 | 2 | 4.00 | 0 | 0 |
 William O’Rourke0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.5 | 0 | 16 | 0 | 4.17 | 0 | 0 |
| Zakary Foulkes2 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 11.1 | 2 | 52 | 3 | 4.66 | 0 | 0 |
| Ben Sears2 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 6.0 | 2 | 12 | 1 | 2.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Mitchell Santner1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 14.2 | 1 | 54 | 2 | 3.77 | 0 | 0 |
1-50 (Ben Stokes, 7.2) · 2-50 (Jacob Bethell, 8.0) · 3-72 (Harry Brook, 9.5) · 4-95 (Ben Duckett, 14.0) · 5-116 (Emilio Gay, 18.1) · 6-116 (Joe Root, 18.5) · 7-191 (Gus Atkinson, 41.5) · 8-198 (Jofra Archer, 46.5) · 9-212 (Josh Tongue, 50.1) · 10-212 (Jamie Smith, 51.2)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | 2/0 |
| 2 | 11 | 13/0 |
| 3 | 5 | 18/0 |
| 4 | 5 | 23/0 |
| 5 | 7 | 30/0 |
| 6 | 6 | 36/0 |
| 7 | 10 | 46/0 |
| 8 | 4 | 50/2 |
| 9 | 12 | 62/2 |
| 10 | 10 | 72/3 |
| 11 | 5 | 77/3 |
| 12 | 8 | 85/3 |
| 13 | 7 | 92/3 |
| 14 | 3 | 95/4 |
| 15 | 8 | 103/4 |
| 16 | 7 | 110/4 |
| 17 | 0 | 110/4 |
| 18 | 6 | 116/4 |
| 19 | 0 | 116/6 |
| 20 | 1 | 117/6 |
| 21 | 12 | 129/6 |
| 22 | 4 | 133/6 |
| 23 | 4 | 137/6 |
| 24 | 2 | 139/6 |
| 25 | 1 | 140/6 |
| 26 | 10 | 150/6 |
| 27 | 0 | 150/6 |
| 28 | 1 | 151/6 |
| 29 | 4 | 155/6 |
| 30 | 1 | 156/6 |
| 31 | 1 | 157/6 |
| 32 | 1 | 158/6 |
| 33 | 4 | 162/6 |
| 34 | 6 | 168/6 |
| 35 | 3 | 171/6 |
| 36 | 2 | 173/6 |
| 37 | 0 | 173/6 |
| 38 | 4 | 177/6 |
| 39 | 5 | 182/6 |
| 40 | 6 | 188/6 |
| 41 | 1 | 189/6 |
| 42 | 2 | 191/7 |
| 43 | 0 | 191/7 |
| 44 | 0 | 191/7 |
| 45 | 2 | 193/7 |
| 46 | 5 | 198/7 |
| 47 | 1 | 199/8 |
| 48 | 1 | 200/8 |
| 49 | 0 | 200/8 |
| 50 | 12 | 212/8 |
| 51 | 0 | 212/9 |
| 52 | 0 | 212/10 |
Harry Brook: Dave Morton · Public domain
Jofra Archer: Ben Sutherland from Crystal Palace, London, UK · CC BY 2.0
Ben Duckett: Charltonkyle · CC BY-SA 4.0
Jamie Smith: Dave Morton · Public domain
Joe Root: Dave Morton · Public domain
William O’Rourke: Dave Morton · Public domain
Rachin Ravindra: JaumeBG · CC BY-SA 4.0
Tom Latham: Robert Drummond · CC0
Ben Stokes: NAPARAZZI · CC BY-SA 2.0
Tom Blundell: www.davidmolloyphotography.com · CC BY 2.0
Blair Tickner: Dave Morton · Public domain
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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