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Photo: Mnnngchris at English Wikipedia
Original photograph ↗ · Public domain
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
Historical photograph; current appearance and conditions may differ.
Vitality Blast Men · 2025 · Men
20 Jun 2025 · T20
The County Ground, Derby · Venue photographRecorded result
Lancashire started on 54%; Lancashire batted first.
Lancashire's chances ranged from 53% to 100% during the match (Derbyshire: 0% to 48%).
Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luke Wellscaught · Aneurin Donald · Martin Andersson 5 fours · 8 sixes | caught · Aneurin Donald · b Martin Andersson | 83 | 44 | 5 | 8 | 188.64 |
| Keaton Jenningsrun out · Ben Aitchison · Ben Aitchison 4 fours · 1 sixes | run out · Ben Aitchison | 33 | 20 | 4 | 1 | 165.00 |
| Matthew Hurstcaught · Samit Patel · Ben Aitchison 5 fours · 4 sixes | caught · Samit Patel · b Ben Aitchison | 59 | 29 | 5 | 4 | 203.45 |
| Liam Livingstonestumped · Brooke Guest · Samit Patel 3 fours · 2 sixes | stumped · Brooke Guest · b Samit Patel | 33 | 17 | 3 | 2 | 194.12 |
 Ashton Turnernot out0 fours · 0 sixes |
| not out |
| 4* |
| 2 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 200.00 |
 Michael Jonescaught · Aneurin Donald · Zak Chappell2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Aneurin Donald · b Zak Chappell | 9 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 180.00 |
|---|
 Chris Greencaught · Brooke Guest · Zak Chappell0 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Brooke Guest · b Zak Chappell | 6 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 300.00 |
|---|
| Jack Blatherwickrun out · Ross Whiteley · Zak Chappell 0 fours · 1 sixes | run out · Ross Whiteley | 7 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 350.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 1 · legbyes: 0 · wides: 6 · noballs: 2 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Allah Mohammad Ghazanfar0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 46 | 0 | 11.50 | 0 | 0 |
 Ben Aitchison0 maidens · 0 wides · 2 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 44 | 1 | 11.00 | 0 | 2 |
 Zak Chappell0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 44 | 2 | 11.00 | 2 | 0 |
| Patrick Brown0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 35 | 0 | 17.50 | 1 | 0 |
| Martin Andersson0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 30 | 1 | 10.00 | 1 | 0 |
 Samit Patel0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 43 | 1 | 14.33 | 2 | 0 |
1-102 (Keaton Jennings, 9.1) · 2-153 (Luke Wells, 12.2) · 3-215 (Liam Livingstone, 18.0) · 4-215 (Matthew Hurst, 18.1) · 5-228 (Michael Jones, 19.2) · 6-234 (Chris Green, 19.4) · 7-243 (Jack Blatherwick, 20.0)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | 5/0 |
| 2 | 14 | 19/0 |
| 3 | 11 | 30/0 |
| 4 | 9 | 39/0 |
| 5 | 13 | 52/0 |
| 6 | 7 | 59/0 |
| 7 | 8 | 67/0 |
| 8 | 22 | 89/0 |
| 9 | 13 | 102/0 |
| 10 | 8 | 110/1 |
| 11 | 16 | 126/1 |
| 12 | 22 | 148/1 |
| 13 | 9 | 157/2 |
| 14 | 13 | 170/2 |
| 15 | 14 | 184/2 |
| 16 | 14 | 198/2 |
| 17 | 9 | 207/2 |
| 18 | 8 | 215/3 |
| 19 | 13 | 228/4 |
| 20 | 15 | 243/7 |
Ross Whiteley: Dave Morton · Public domain
Tom Hartley: Dave Morton · Public domain
Luke Wood: Dave Morton · Public domain
Chris Green: Servite et contribuere · CC0
Aneurin Donald: Dave Morton · Public domain
Michael Jones: Dave Morton · Public domain
Ben Aitchison: Dave Morton · Public domain
Brooke Guest: Dave Morton · Public domain
Saqib Mahmood: Dave Morton · Public domain
Samit Patel: Oliver Brown · CC BY-SA 3.0
Wayne Madsen: Parklands cobbler · CC BY 3.0
Ashton Turner: NAPARAZZI · CC BY-SA 2.0
Zak Chappell: Dave Morton · Public domain
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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