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Photo: NZDF
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY 4.0
Resized and converted to WebP; display framing may vary.
Historical photograph; current appearance and conditions may differ.
Super Smash · 2025/26 · Men
31 Dec 2025 · T20
Bay Oval, Mount Maunganui · Venue photographRecorded result
Wellington started on 43%; Wellington batted first.
Wellington's chances ranged from 29% to 98% during the match (Northern Districts: 2% to 72%).
Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
On 31 Dec 2025, Wellington played Northern Districts at Bay Oval, Mount Maunganui. Recorded result: Wellington won by 13 runs.
Calculation date: 9 Nov 2026.