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The Ashes · 2025/26 · Men
17 Dec 2025 · Test
Adelaide Oval · Venue photographRecorded result
Australia more likely to win
Model tested on 119 past Tests it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings, plus how often Tests at this ground end in a draw. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Zak Crawleycaught · Alex Carey · Pat Cummins0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Alex Carey · b Pat Cummins | 9 | 19 | 0 | 0 | 47.37 |
 Ben Duckettbowled · Nathan Lyon5 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Nathan Lyon | 29 | 30 | 5 | 0 | 96.67 |
 Ollie Popecaught · Josh Inglis · Nathan Lyon0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Josh Inglis · b Nathan Lyon | 3 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 30.00 |
 |
| caught · Alex Carey · b Pat Cummins |
| 19 |
| 31 |
| 3 |
| 0 |
| 61.29 |
 Harry Brookcaught · Alex Carey · Cameron Green2 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Alex Carey · b Cameron Green | 45 | 63 | 2 | 1 | 71.43 |
|---|
 Ben Stokesbowled · Mitchell Starc8 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Mitchell Starc | 83 | 198 | 8 | 0 | 41.92 |
|---|
 Jamie Smithcaught · Alex Carey · Pat Cummins3 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Alex Carey · b Pat Cummins | 22 | 26 | 3 | 1 | 84.62 |
|---|
 Will Jackscaught · Alex Carey · Scott Boland1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Alex Carey · b Scott Boland | 6 | 29 | 1 | 0 | 20.69 |
|---|
 Brydon Carsebowled · Scott Boland0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Scott Boland | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
 Jofra Archercaught · Marnus Labuschagne · Scott Boland5 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Marnus Labuschagne · b Scott Boland | 51 | 105 | 5 | 1 | 48.57 |
|---|
| Josh Tonguenot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 7* | 12 | 0 | 0 | 58.33 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 3 · legbyes: 5 · wides: 0 · noballs: 4 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Mitchell Starc1 maidens · 0 wides · 1 no-balls | 16.0 | 1 | 61 | 1 | 3.81 | 0 | 1 |
 Pat Cummins3 maidens · 0 wides · 1 no-balls | 17.0 | 3 | 69 | 3 | 4.06 | 0 | 1 |
 Scott Boland6 maidens · 0 wides · 1 no-balls | 15.2 | 6 | 45 | 3 | 2.93 | 0 | 1 |
 Nathan Lyon5 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 28.0 | 5 | 70 | 2 | 2.50 | 0 | 0 |
 Cameron Green3 maidens · 0 wides · 1 no-balls | 11.0 | 3 | 33 | 1 | 3.00 | 0 | 1 |
1-37 (Zak Crawley, 7.4) · 2-41 (Ollie Pope, 9.3) · 3-42 (Ben Duckett, 10.0) · 4-71 (Joe Root, 16.4) · 5-127 (Harry Brook, 36.2) · 6-159 (Jamie Smith, 45.1) · 7-168 (Will Jacks, 52.2) · 8-168 (Brydon Carse, 54.1) · 9-274 (Ben Stokes, 84.1) · 10-286 (Jofra Archer, 87.2)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | 1/0 |
| 2 | 6 | 7/0 |
| 3 | 5 | 12/0 |
| 4 | 9 | 21/0 |
| 5 | 5 | 26/0 |
| 6 | 2 | 28/0 |
| 7 | 9 | 37/0 |
| 8 | 3 | 40/1 |
| 9 | 0 | 40/1 |
| 10 | 2 | 42/3 |
| 11 | 0 | 42/3 |
| 12 | 6 | 48/3 |
| 13 | 5 | 53/3 |
| 14 | 6 | 59/3 |
| 15 | 0 | 59/3 |
| 16 | 5 | 64/3 |
| 17 | 7 | 71/4 |
| 18 | 2 | 73/4 |
| 19 | 4 | 77/4 |
| 20 | 3 | 80/4 |
| 21 | 1 | 81/4 |
| 22 | 1 | 82/4 |
| 23 | 3 | 85/4 |
| 24 | 1 | 86/4 |
| 25 | 5 | 91/4 |
| 26 | 1 | 92/4 |
| 27 | 6 | 98/4 |
| 28 | 0 | 98/4 |
| 29 | 13 | 111/4 |
| 30 | 1 | 112/4 |
| 31 | 1 | 113/4 |
| 32 | 3 | 116/4 |
| 33 | 6 | 122/4 |
| 34 | 2 | 124/4 |
| 35 | 1 | 125/4 |
| 36 | 1 | 126/4 |
| 37 | 1 | 127/5 |
| 38 | 0 | 127/5 |
| 39 | 5 | 132/5 |
| 40 | 0 | 132/5 |
| 41 | 0 | 132/5 |
| 42 | 11 | 143/5 |
| 43 | 0 | 143/5 |
| 44 | 7 | 150/5 |
| 45 | 9 | 159/5 |
| 46 | 1 | 160/6 |
| 47 | 0 | 160/6 |
| 48 | 2 | 162/6 |
| 49 | 0 | 162/6 |
| 50 | 5 | 167/6 |
| 51 | 1 | 168/6 |
| 52 | 0 | 168/6 |
| 53 | 0 | 168/7 |
| 54 | 0 | 168/7 |
| 55 | 0 | 168/8 |
| 56 | 2 | 170/8 |
| 57 | 5 | 175/8 |
| 58 | 4 | 179/8 |
| 59 | 12 | 191/8 |
| 60 | 3 | 194/8 |
| 61 | 3 | 197/8 |
| 62 | 5 | 202/8 |
| 63 | 6 | 208/8 |
| 64 | 2 | 210/8 |
| 65 | 1 | 211/8 |
| 66 | 2 | 213/8 |
| 67 | 0 | 213/8 |
| 68 | 0 | 213/8 |
| 69 | 5 | 218/8 |
| 70 | 0 | 218/8 |
| 71 | 1 | 219/8 |
| 72 | 7 | 226/8 |
| 73 | 8 | 234/8 |
| 74 | 3 | 237/8 |
| 75 | 2 | 239/8 |
| 76 | 5 | 244/8 |
| 77 | 2 | 246/8 |
| 78 | 4 | 250/8 |
| 79 | 7 | 257/8 |
| 80 | 3 | 260/8 |
| 81 | 1 | 261/8 |
| 82 | 9 | 270/8 |
| 83 | 2 | 272/8 |
| 84 | 2 | 274/8 |
| 85 | 1 | 275/9 |
| 86 | 4 | 279/9 |
| 87 | 7 | 286/9 |
| 88 | 0 | 286/10 |
Harry Brook: Dave Morton · Public domain
Jofra Archer: Ben Sutherland from Crystal Palace, London, UK · CC BY 2.0
Brydon Carse: Dave Morton · Public domain
Ollie Pope: Kroome111 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Marnus Labuschagne: Ben Sutherland from Crystal Palace, London, UK · CC BY 2.0
Usman Khawaja: NAPARAZZI · CC BY-SA 2.0
Nathan Lyon: EGilham · CC BY-SA 4.0
Ben Duckett: Charltonkyle · CC BY-SA 4.0
Travis Head: Calistemon · CC BY-SA 4.0
Jamie Smith: Dave Morton · Public domain
Pat Cummins: SirWellsy99 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Scott Boland: Neb · CC BY-SA 4.0
Alex Carey: Calistemon · CC BY-SA 4.0
Joe Root: Dave Morton · Public domain
Josh Inglis: Prime Video AU & NZ · CC BY 3.0
Mitchell Starc: Dave Morton · Public domain
Zak Crawley: Dave Morton · Public domain
Will Jacks: Dave Morton · Public domain
Cameron Green: Calistemon · CC BY-SA 4.0
Ben Stokes: NAPARAZZI · CC BY-SA 2.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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