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The Ashes · 2025/26 · Men
17 Dec 2025 · Test
Adelaide Oval · Venue photographRecorded result
Australia more likely to win
Model tested on 119 past Tests it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings, plus how often Tests at this ground end in a draw. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Innings 4
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Zak Crawleystumped · Alex Carey · Nathan Lyon8 fours · 0 sixes | stumped · Alex Carey · b Nathan Lyon | 85 | 151 | 8 | 0 | 56.29 |
 Ben Duckettcaught · Marnus Labuschagne · Pat Cummins1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Marnus Labuschagne · b Pat Cummins | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 200.00 |
 Ollie Popecaught · Marnus Labuschagne · Pat Cummins2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Marnus Labuschagne · b Pat Cummins | 17 | 29 | 2 | 0 | 58.62 |
| caught · Alex Carey · b Pat Cummins |
| 39 |
| 63 |
| 5 |
| 0 |
| 61.90 |
 Harry Brookbowled · Nathan Lyon2 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Nathan Lyon | 30 | 56 | 2 | 0 | 53.57 |
|---|
 Ben Stokesbowled · Nathan Lyon1 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Nathan Lyon | 5 | 18 | 1 | 0 | 27.78 |
|---|
 Jamie Smithcaught · Pat Cummins · Mitchell Starc7 fours · 2 sixes | caught · Pat Cummins · b Mitchell Starc | 60 | 83 | 7 | 2 | 72.29 |
|---|
 Will Jackscaught · Marnus Labuschagne · Mitchell Starc3 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Marnus Labuschagne · b Mitchell Starc | 47 | 137 | 3 | 0 | 34.31 |
|---|
 Brydon Carsenot out4 fours · 1 sixes | not out | 39* | 64 | 4 | 1 | 60.94 |
|---|
 Jofra Archercaught · Jake Weatherald · Mitchell Starc0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Jake Weatherald · b Mitchell Starc | 3 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 21.43 |
|---|
| Josh Tonguecaught · Marnus Labuschagne · Scott Boland 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Marnus Labuschagne · b Scott Boland | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 33.33 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 4 · legbyes: 14 · wides: 1 · noballs: 3 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Mitchell Starc3 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 17.0 | 3 | 62 | 3 | 3.65 | 1 | 0 |
 Pat Cummins4 maidens · 0 wides · 2 no-balls | 17.0 | 4 | 48 | 3 | 2.82 | 0 | 2 |
 Scott Boland5 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 17.5 | 5 | 35 | 1 | 1.96 | 0 | 0 |
 Nathan Lyon6 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 25.0 | 6 | 77 | 3 | 3.08 | 0 | 0 |
 Cameron Green0 maidens · 0 wides · 1 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 44 | 0 | 4.40 | 0 | 1 |
 Travis Head3 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 15.0 | 3 | 61 | 0 | 4.07 | 0 | 0 |
 Marnus Labuschagne0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 7.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-4 (Ben Duckett, 1.2) · 2-31 (Ollie Pope, 9.4) · 3-109 (Joe Root, 29.0) · 4-177 (Harry Brook, 47.2) · 5-189 (Ben Stokes, 52.0) · 6-194 (Zak Crawley, 53.3) · 7-285 (Jamie Smith, 82.5) · 8-337 (Will Jacks, 97.2) · 9-349 (Jofra Archer, 101.3) · 10-352 (Josh Tongue, 102.5)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | 0/0 |
| 2 | 5 | 5/1 |
| 3 | 6 | 11/1 |
| 4 | 5 | 16/1 |
| 5 | 4 | 20/1 |
| 6 | 1 | 21/1 |
| 7 | 5 | 26/1 |
| 8 | 2 | 28/1 |
| 9 | 3 | 31/1 |
| 10 | 0 | 31/2 |
| 11 | 10 | 41/2 |
| 12 | 3 | 44/2 |
| 13 | 2 | 46/2 |
| 14 | 3 | 49/2 |
| 15 | 2 | 51/2 |
| 16 | 9 | 60/2 |
| 17 | 1 | 61/2 |
| 18 | 6 | 67/2 |
| 19 | 1 | 68/2 |
| 20 | 5 | 73/2 |
| 21 | 0 | 73/2 |
| 22 | 6 | 79/2 |
| 23 | 7 | 86/2 |
| 24 | 6 | 92/2 |
| 25 | 3 | 95/2 |
| 26 | 4 | 99/2 |
| 27 | 7 | 106/2 |
| 28 | 3 | 109/2 |
| 29 | 0 | 109/3 |
| 30 | 1 | 110/3 |
| 31 | 0 | 110/3 |
| 32 | 3 | 113/3 |
| 33 | 5 | 118/3 |
| 34 | 4 | 122/3 |
| 35 | 1 | 123/3 |
| 36 | 6 | 129/3 |
| 37 | 2 | 131/3 |
| 38 | 0 | 131/3 |
| 39 | 0 | 131/3 |
| 40 | 4 | 135/3 |
| 41 | 4 | 139/3 |
| 42 | 4 | 143/3 |
| 43 | 5 | 148/3 |
| 44 | 5 | 153/3 |
| 45 | 5 | 158/3 |
| 46 | 13 | 171/3 |
| 47 | 5 | 176/3 |
| 48 | 2 | 178/4 |
| 49 | 0 | 178/4 |
| 50 | 5 | 183/4 |
| 51 | 5 | 188/4 |
| 52 | 1 | 189/5 |
| 53 | 5 | 194/5 |
| 54 | 0 | 194/6 |
| 55 | 0 | 194/6 |
| 56 | 4 | 198/6 |
| 57 | 0 | 198/6 |
| 58 | 1 | 199/6 |
| 59 | 6 | 205/6 |
| 60 | 0 | 205/6 |
| 61 | 0 | 205/6 |
| 62 | 2 | 207/6 |
| 63 | 0 | 207/6 |
| 64 | 3 | 210/6 |
| 65 | 3 | 213/6 |
| 66 | 1 | 214/6 |
| 67 | 4 | 218/6 |
| 68 | 7 | 225/6 |
| 69 | 7 | 232/6 |
| 70 | 0 | 232/6 |
| 71 | 8 | 240/6 |
| 72 | 0 | 240/6 |
| 73 | 1 | 241/6 |
| 74 | 0 | 241/6 |
| 75 | 2 | 243/6 |
| 76 | 3 | 246/6 |
| 77 | 3 | 249/6 |
| 78 | 1 | 250/6 |
| 79 | 7 | 257/6 |
| 80 | 10 | 267/6 |
| 81 | 1 | 268/6 |
| 82 | 8 | 276/6 |
| 83 | 9 | 285/7 |
| 84 | 4 | 289/7 |
| 85 | 8 | 297/7 |
| 86 | 6 | 303/7 |
| 87 | 5 | 308/7 |
| 88 | 0 | 308/7 |
| 89 | 1 | 309/7 |
| 90 | 0 | 309/7 |
| 91 | 4 | 313/7 |
| 92 | 3 | 316/7 |
| 93 | 1 | 317/7 |
| 94 | 4 | 321/7 |
| 95 | 3 | 324/7 |
| 96 | 9 | 333/7 |
| 97 | 4 | 337/7 |
| 98 | 1 | 338/8 |
| 99 | 6 | 344/8 |
| 100 | 3 | 347/8 |
| 101 | 2 | 349/8 |
| 102 | 2 | 351/9 |
| 103 | 1 | 352/10 |
Harry Brook: Dave Morton · Public domain
Jofra Archer: Ben Sutherland from Crystal Palace, London, UK · CC BY 2.0
Brydon Carse: Dave Morton · Public domain
Ollie Pope: Kroome111 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Marnus Labuschagne: Ben Sutherland from Crystal Palace, London, UK · CC BY 2.0
Usman Khawaja: NAPARAZZI · CC BY-SA 2.0
Nathan Lyon: EGilham · CC BY-SA 4.0
Ben Duckett: Charltonkyle · CC BY-SA 4.0
Travis Head: Calistemon · CC BY-SA 4.0
Jamie Smith: Dave Morton · Public domain
Pat Cummins: SirWellsy99 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Scott Boland: Neb · CC BY-SA 4.0
Alex Carey: Calistemon · CC BY-SA 4.0
Joe Root: Dave Morton · Public domain
Josh Inglis: Prime Video AU & NZ · CC BY 3.0
Mitchell Starc: Dave Morton · Public domain
Zak Crawley: Dave Morton · Public domain
Will Jacks: Dave Morton · Public domain
Cameron Green: Calistemon · CC BY-SA 4.0
Ben Stokes: NAPARAZZI · CC BY-SA 2.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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