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South Africa tour of Pakistan · 2025/26 · Men
12 Oct 2025 · Test
Gaddafi Stadium, Lahore · Venue photographRecorded result
South Africa more likely to win
Model tested on 119 past Tests it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings, plus how often Tests at this ground end in a draw. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Innings 4
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Ryan Rickeltoncaught · Salman Ali Agha · Sajid Khan4 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Salman Ali Agha · b Sajid Khan | 45 | 145 | 4 | 0 | 31.03 |
 Aiden Markrambowled · Nauman Ali0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Nauman Ali | 3 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 27.27 |
 Wiaan Muldercaught · Salman Ali Agha · Nauman Ali0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Salman Ali Agha · b Nauman Ali | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| lbw · b Shaheen Afridi |
| 16 |
| 47 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 34.04 |
| Tristan Stubbscaught · Salman Ali Agha · Nauman Ali 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Salman Ali Agha · b Nauman Ali | 2 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 25.00 |
|---|
| Dewald Brevisbowled · Nauman Ali 6 fours · 2 sixes | bowled · b Nauman Ali | 54 | 54 | 6 | 2 | 100.00 |
|---|
| Kyle Verreynnelbw · Shaheen Afridi 1 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Shaheen Afridi | 19 | 48 | 1 | 0 | 39.58 |
|---|
| Senuran Muthusamylbw · Sajid Khan 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Sajid Khan | 6 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 42.86 |
|---|
 Simon Harmernot out1 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 14* | 29 | 1 | 0 | 48.28 |
|---|
| Prenelan Subrayenbowled · Shaheen Afridi 1 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Shaheen Afridi | 8 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
 Kagiso Rabadabowled · Shaheen Afridi0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Shaheen Afridi | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 4 · legbyes: 8 · wides: 0 · noballs: 4 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Hasan Ali0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 6.0 | 0 | 14 | 0 | 2.33 | 0 | 0 |
| Nauman Ali4 maidens · 0 wides · 3 no-balls | 28.0 | 4 | 79 | 4 | 2.82 | 0 | 3 |
| Sajid Khan1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 14.0 | 1 | 38 | 2 | 2.71 | 0 | 0 |
| Salman Ali Agha1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 1.75 | 0 | 0 |
 Shaheen Afridi1 maidens · 0 wides · 1 no-balls | 8.5 | 1 | 33 | 4 | 3.74 | 0 | 1 |
1-13 (Aiden Markram, 5.5) · 2-18 (Wiaan Mulder, 7.1) · 3-51 (Tony de Zorzi, 22.3) · 4-55 (Tristan Stubbs, 25.2) · 5-128 (Dewald Brevis, 41.3) · 6-134 (Ryan Rickelton, 46.2) · 7-144 (Senuran Muthusamy, 50.4) · 8-173 (Kyle Verreynne, 58.1) · 9-183 (Prenelan Subrayen, 60.3) · 10-183 (Kagiso Rabada, 60.5)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | 1/0 |
| 2 | 4 | 5/0 |
| 3 | 1 | 6/0 |
| 4 | 1 | 7/0 |
| 5 | 4 | 11/0 |
| 6 | 3 | 14/1 |
| 7 | 4 | 18/1 |
| 8 | 1 | 19/2 |
| 9 | 7 | 26/2 |
| 10 | 0 | 26/2 |
| 11 | 5 | 31/2 |
| 12 | 2 | 33/2 |
| 13 | 0 | 33/2 |
| 14 | 2 | 35/2 |
| 15 | 3 | 38/2 |
| 16 | 1 | 39/2 |
| 17 | 3 | 42/2 |
| 18 | 3 | 45/2 |
| 19 | 1 | 46/2 |
| 20 | 3 | 49/2 |
| 21 | 1 | 50/2 |
| 22 | 1 | 51/2 |
| 23 | 0 | 51/3 |
| 24 | 3 | 54/3 |
| 25 | 1 | 55/3 |
| 26 | 1 | 56/4 |
| 27 | 4 | 60/4 |
| 28 | 0 | 60/4 |
| 29 | 5 | 65/4 |
| 30 | 5 | 70/4 |
| 31 | 3 | 73/4 |
| 32 | 2 | 75/4 |
| 33 | 5 | 80/4 |
| 34 | 15 | 95/4 |
| 35 | 7 | 102/4 |
| 36 | 1 | 103/4 |
| 37 | 2 | 105/4 |
| 38 | 5 | 110/4 |
| 39 | 2 | 112/4 |
| 40 | 10 | 122/4 |
| 41 | 2 | 124/4 |
| 42 | 6 | 130/5 |
| 43 | 1 | 131/5 |
| 44 | 3 | 134/5 |
| 45 | 0 | 134/5 |
| 46 | 0 | 134/5 |
| 47 | 1 | 135/6 |
| 48 | 2 | 137/6 |
| 49 | 4 | 141/6 |
| 50 | 2 | 143/6 |
| 51 | 1 | 144/7 |
| 52 | 2 | 146/7 |
| 53 | 1 | 147/7 |
| 54 | 2 | 149/7 |
| 55 | 4 | 153/7 |
| 56 | 4 | 157/7 |
| 57 | 13 | 170/7 |
| 58 | 3 | 173/7 |
| 59 | 8 | 181/8 |
| 60 | 2 | 183/8 |
| 61 | 0 | 183/10 |
Imam-ul-Haq: Pakistan Cricket Board · CC BY 3.0
Ryan Rickelton: Dave Morton · Public domain
Wiaan Mulder: EGilham · CC BY-SA 4.0
Shaheen Afridi: CRICKETNEXT · CC BY 3.0
Aiden Markram: Marcel Sigg · CC0
Mohammad Babar Azam: ICNA · CC BY 3.0
Mohammad Rizwan: ICNA · CC BY 3.0
Abdullah Shafique: Dave Morton · Public domain
Hasan Ali: Pakistan Cricket Board · CC BY 3.0
Shan Masood: Balochistan Social News · CC BY 3.0
Kagiso Rabada: Blue Square Thing · CC BY-SA 4.0
Saud Shakeel: Dave Morton · Public domain
Simon Harmer: Kroome111 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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