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Sri Lanka tour of South Africa · 2024/25 · Men
27 Nov 2024 · Test
Kingsmead, Durban · Venue photographRecorded result
South Africa more likely to win
Model tested on 119 past Tests it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings, plus how often Tests at this ground end in a draw. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Aiden Markramcaught · Angelo Mathews · Asitha Fernando2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Angelo Mathews · b Asitha Fernando | 9 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 81.82 |
| Tony de Zorzicaught · Kamindu Mendis · Vishwa Fernando 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Kamindu Mendis · b Vishwa Fernando | 4 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 44.44 |
| Tristan Stubbscaught · Dimuth Karunaratne · Lahiru Kumara 3 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Dimuth Karunaratne · b Lahiru Kumara | 16 | 38 | 3 | 0 | 42.11 |
 Temba Bavumacaught · Lahiru Kumara · Asitha Fernando9 fours · 1 sixes |
| caught · Lahiru Kumara · b Asitha Fernando |
| 70 |
| 117 |
| 9 |
| 1 |
| 59.83 |
| David Bedinghambowled · Lahiru Kumara 1 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Lahiru Kumara | 4 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 66.67 |
|---|
| Kyle Verreynnelbw · Lahiru Kumara 2 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Lahiru Kumara | 9 | 22 | 2 | 0 | 40.91 |
|---|
 Wiaan Muldernot out0 fours · 1 sixes | not out | 9* | 12 | 0 | 1 | 75.00 |
|---|
 Marco Jansenlbw · Prabath Jayasuriya2 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Prabath Jayasuriya | 13 | 21 | 2 | 0 | 61.90 |
|---|
| Gerald Coetzeecaught · Kamindu Mendis · Prabath Jayasuriya 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Kamindu Mendis · b Prabath Jayasuriya | 1 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 12.50 |
|---|
 Keshav Maharajcaught · Dhananjaya de Silva · Vishwa Fernando3 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Dhananjaya de Silva · b Vishwa Fernando | 24 | 35 | 3 | 1 | 68.57 |
|---|
 Kagiso Rabadacaught · Dinesh Chandimal · Asitha Fernando2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Dinesh Chandimal · b Asitha Fernando | 15 | 23 | 2 | 0 | 65.22 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 2 · legbyes: 5 · wides: 6 · noballs: 4 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asitha Fernando3 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 14.4 | 3 | 44 | 3 | 3.00 | 0 | 0 |
 Vishwa Fernando2 maidens · 6 wides · 0 no-balls | 15.0 | 2 | 35 | 2 | 2.33 | 6 | 0 |
 Angelo Mathews2 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Lahiru Kumara1 maidens · 0 wides · 4 no-balls | 12.0 | 1 | 70 | 3 | 5.83 | 0 | 4 |
| Prabath Jayasuriya1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 5.0 | 1 | 24 | 2 | 4.80 | 0 | 0 |
| Dhananjaya de Silva0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 11 | 0 | 11.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-14 (Aiden Markram, 3.0) · 2-14 (Tony de Zorzi, 3.2) · 3-46 (Tristan Stubbs, 15.1) · 4-54 (David Bedingham, 17.1) · 5-83 (Kyle Verreynne, 23.2) · 6-113 (Marco Jansen, 32.4) · 7-117 (Gerald Coetzee, 34.3) · 8-143 (Keshav Maharaj, 41.0) · 9-165 (Temba Bavuma, 46.0) · 10-191 (Kagiso Rabada, 49.4)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | 8/0 |
| 2 | 4 | 12/0 |
| 3 | 2 | 14/1 |
| 4 | 1 | 15/2 |
| 5 | 0 | 15/2 |
| 6 | 1 | 16/2 |
| 7 | 0 | 16/2 |
| 8 | 1 | 17/2 |
| 9 | 8 | 25/2 |
| 10 | 3 | 28/2 |
| 11 | 0 | 28/2 |
| 12 | 1 | 29/2 |
| 13 | 0 | 29/2 |
| 14 | 17 | 46/2 |
| 15 | 0 | 46/2 |
| 16 | 4 | 50/3 |
| 17 | 4 | 54/3 |
| 18 | 1 | 55/4 |
| 19 | 2 | 57/4 |
| 20 | 17 | 74/4 |
| 21 | 6 | 80/4 |
| 22 | 3 | 83/4 |
| 23 | 0 | 83/4 |
| 24 | 0 | 83/5 |
| 25 | 0 | 83/5 |
| 26 | 2 | 85/5 |
| 27 | 5 | 90/5 |
| 28 | 11 | 101/5 |
| 29 | 2 | 103/5 |
| 30 | 5 | 108/5 |
| 31 | 2 | 110/5 |
| 32 | 1 | 111/5 |
| 33 | 2 | 113/6 |
| 34 | 4 | 117/6 |
| 35 | 1 | 118/7 |
| 36 | 1 | 119/7 |
| 37 | 15 | 134/7 |
| 38 | 1 | 135/7 |
| 39 | 5 | 140/7 |
| 40 | 2 | 142/7 |
| 41 | 1 | 143/8 |
| 42 | 7 | 150/8 |
| 43 | 1 | 151/8 |
| 44 | 9 | 160/8 |
| 45 | 3 | 163/8 |
| 46 | 2 | 165/9 |
| 47 | 6 | 171/9 |
| 48 | 3 | 174/9 |
| 49 | 11 | 185/9 |
| 50 | 6 | 191/10 |
Angelo Mathews: paddynapper · CC BY-SA 2.0
Temba Bavuma: Michael Sherman · CC BY 3.0
Wiaan Mulder: EGilham · CC BY-SA 4.0
Marco Jansen: Storm machine · CC BY-SA 4.0
Aiden Markram: Marcel Sigg · CC0
Vishwa Fernando: Dave Morton · Public domain
Keshav Maharaj: Dave Morton · Public domain
Dinesh Chandimal: Amal316 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Kagiso Rabada: Blue Square Thing · CC BY-SA 4.0
Dimuth Karunaratne: Dave Morton · Public domain
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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