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Sri Lanka tour of South Africa · 2024/25 · Men
27 Nov 2024 · Test
Kingsmead, Durban · Venue photographRecorded result
South Africa more likely to win
Model tested on 119 past Tests it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings, plus how often Tests at this ground end in a draw. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pathum Nissankacaught · Tristan Stubbs · Marco Jansen 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Tristan Stubbs · b Marco Jansen | 3 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 25.00 |
 Dimuth Karunaratnecaught · David Bedingham · Kagiso Rabada0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · David Bedingham · b Kagiso Rabada | 2 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 22.22 |
 Dinesh Chandimalbowled · Marco Jansen0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Marco Jansen | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
 |
| caught · David Bedingham · b Marco Jansen |
| 1 |
| 14 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 7.14 |
| Kamindu Mendiscaught · David Bedingham · Gerald Coetzee 3 fours · 0 sixes | caught · David Bedingham · b Gerald Coetzee | 13 | 20 | 3 | 0 | 65.00 |
|---|
| Dhananjaya de Silvabowled · Marco Jansen 1 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Marco Jansen | 7 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 58.33 |
|---|
| Kusal Mendislbw · Gerald Coetzee 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Gerald Coetzee | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Prabath Jayasuriyacaught · Tristan Stubbs · Marco Jansen 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Tristan Stubbs · b Marco Jansen | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
 Vishwa Fernandobowled · Marco Jansen0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Marco Jansen | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Lahiru Kumaranot out 2 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 10* | 5 | 2 | 0 | 200.00 |
|---|
| Asitha Fernandocaught and bowled · Marco Jansen 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught and bowled · b Marco Jansen | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 1 · wides: 1 · noballs: 4 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Kagiso Rabada1 maidens · 0 wides · 1 no-balls | 4.0 | 1 | 10 | 1 | 2.50 | 0 | 1 |
 Marco Jansen1 maidens · 1 wides · 3 no-balls | 6.5 | 1 | 13 | 7 | 1.90 | 1 | 3 |
| Gerald Coetzee0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 18 | 2 | 6.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-6 (Dimuth Karunaratne, 3.0) · 2-7 (Pathum Nissanka, 3.2) · 3-9 (Dinesh Chandimal, 5.2) · 4-16 (Angelo Mathews, 7.1) · 5-32 (Kamindu Mendis, 10.4) · 6-32 (Dhananjaya de Silva, 11.3) · 7-32 (Prabath Jayasuriya, 12.0) · 8-32 (Kusal Mendis, 12.1) · 9-42 (Vishwa Fernando, 13.3) · 10-42 (Asitha Fernando, 13.5)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | 3/0 |
| 2 | 1 | 4/0 |
| 3 | 2 | 6/1 |
| 4 | 2 | 8/2 |
| 5 | 0 | 8/2 |
| 6 | 1 | 9/3 |
| 7 | 6 | 15/3 |
| 8 | 5 | 20/4 |
| 9 | 4 | 24/4 |
| 10 | 4 | 28/4 |
| 11 | 4 | 32/5 |
| 12 | 0 | 32/7 |
| 13 | 10 | 42/8 |
| 14 | 0 | 42/10 |
Angelo Mathews: paddynapper · CC BY-SA 2.0
Temba Bavuma: Michael Sherman · CC BY 3.0
Wiaan Mulder: EGilham · CC BY-SA 4.0
Marco Jansen: Storm machine · CC BY-SA 4.0
Aiden Markram: Marcel Sigg · CC0
Vishwa Fernando: Dave Morton · Public domain
Keshav Maharaj: Dave Morton · Public domain
Dinesh Chandimal: Amal316 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Kagiso Rabada: Blue Square Thing · CC BY-SA 4.0
Dimuth Karunaratne: Dave Morton · Public domain
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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