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Sri Lanka tour of South Africa · 2024/25 · Men
27 Nov 2024 · Test
Kingsmead, Durban · Venue photographRecorded result
South Africa more likely to win
Model tested on 119 past Tests it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings, plus how often Tests at this ground end in a draw. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Innings 4
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pathum Nissankalbw · Gerald Coetzee 4 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Gerald Coetzee | 23 | 31 | 4 | 0 | 74.19 |
 Dimuth Karunaratnecaught · Tristan Stubbs · Kagiso Rabada1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Tristan Stubbs · b Kagiso Rabada | 4 | 18 | 1 | 0 | 22.22 |
 Dinesh Chandimalcaught and bowled · Gerald Coetzee12 fours · 0 sixes | caught and bowled · b Gerald Coetzee | 83 | 174 | 12 | 0 | 47.70 |
 |
| lbw · b Marco Jansen |
| 25 |
| 42 |
| 2 |
| 0 |
| 59.52 |
| Kamindu Mendiscaught · Kyle Verreynne · Marco Jansen 0 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Kyle Verreynne · b Marco Jansen | 10 | 28 | 0 | 1 | 35.71 |
|---|
| Prabath Jayasuriyacaught · Tony de Zorzi · Kagiso Rabada 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Tony de Zorzi · b Kagiso Rabada | 1 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 8.33 |
|---|
| Dhananjaya de Silvacaught · Tristan Stubbs · Keshav Maharaj 9 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Tristan Stubbs · b Keshav Maharaj | 59 | 81 | 9 | 1 | 72.84 |
|---|
| Kusal Mendiscaught · Kyle Verreynne · Marco Jansen 9 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Kyle Verreynne · b Marco Jansen | 48 | 77 | 9 | 0 | 62.34 |
|---|
 Vishwa Fernandocaught · Aiden Markram · Keshav Maharaj0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Aiden Markram · b Keshav Maharaj | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 20.00 |
|---|
| Lahiru Kumaranot out 1 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 5* | 15 | 1 | 0 | 33.33 |
|---|
| Asitha Fernandobowled · Marco Jansen 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Marco Jansen | 0 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 4 · legbyes: 6 · wides: 0 · noballs: 13 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Kagiso Rabada3 maidens · 0 wides · 10 no-balls | 21.0 | 3 | 65 | 2 | 3.10 | 0 | 10 |
 Marco Jansen5 maidens · 0 wides · 3 no-balls | 21.4 | 5 | 73 | 4 | 3.37 | 0 | 3 |
| Gerald Coetzee0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 13.0 | 0 | 67 | 2 | 5.15 | 0 | 0 |
 Keshav Maharaj5 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 24.0 | 5 | 67 | 2 | 2.79 | 0 | 0 |
1-12 (Dimuth Karunaratne, 4.5) · 2-38 (Pathum Nissanka, 9.2) · 3-82 (Angelo Mathews, 20.1) · 4-99 (Kamindu Mendis, 27.0) · 5-101 (Prabath Jayasuriya, 29.5) · 6-196 (Dhananjaya de Silva, 54.4) · 7-271 (Dinesh Chandimal, 73.2) · 8-272 (Vishwa Fernando, 74.1) · 9-276 (Kusal Mendis, 77.4) · 10-282 (Asitha Fernando, 79.4)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | 6/0 |
| 2 | 0 | 6/0 |
| 3 | 0 | 6/0 |
| 4 | 1 | 7/0 |
| 5 | 5 | 12/1 |
| 6 | 3 | 15/1 |
| 7 | 6 | 21/1 |
| 8 | 13 | 34/1 |
| 9 | 4 | 38/1 |
| 10 | 9 | 47/2 |
| 11 | 3 | 50/2 |
| 12 | 10 | 60/2 |
| 13 | 3 | 63/2 |
| 14 | 5 | 68/2 |
| 15 | 3 | 71/2 |
| 16 | 1 | 72/2 |
| 17 | 2 | 74/2 |
| 18 | 1 | 75/2 |
| 19 | 6 | 81/2 |
| 20 | 1 | 82/2 |
| 21 | 0 | 82/3 |
| 22 | 2 | 84/3 |
| 23 | 2 | 86/3 |
| 24 | 6 | 92/3 |
| 25 | 4 | 96/3 |
| 26 | 3 | 99/3 |
| 27 | 0 | 99/4 |
| 28 | 0 | 99/4 |
| 29 | 1 | 100/4 |
| 30 | 1 | 101/5 |
| 31 | 2 | 103/5 |
| 32 | 2 | 105/5 |
| 33 | 1 | 106/5 |
| 34 | 6 | 112/5 |
| 35 | 9 | 121/5 |
| 36 | 3 | 124/5 |
| 37 | 1 | 125/5 |
| 38 | 2 | 127/5 |
| 39 | 3 | 130/5 |
| 40 | 5 | 135/5 |
| 41 | 1 | 136/5 |
| 42 | 0 | 136/5 |
| 43 | 4 | 140/5 |
| 44 | 8 | 148/5 |
| 45 | 0 | 148/5 |
| 46 | 8 | 156/5 |
| 47 | 8 | 164/5 |
| 48 | 4 | 168/5 |
| 49 | 10 | 178/5 |
| 50 | 4 | 182/5 |
| 51 | 8 | 190/5 |
| 52 | 1 | 191/5 |
| 53 | 3 | 194/5 |
| 54 | 1 | 195/5 |
| 55 | 1 | 196/6 |
| 56 | 5 | 201/6 |
| 57 | 4 | 205/6 |
| 58 | 3 | 208/6 |
| 59 | 0 | 208/6 |
| 60 | 0 | 208/6 |
| 61 | 5 | 213/6 |
| 62 | 5 | 218/6 |
| 63 | 2 | 220/6 |
| 64 | 5 | 225/6 |
| 65 | 0 | 225/6 |
| 66 | 4 | 229/6 |
| 67 | 1 | 230/6 |
| 68 | 15 | 245/6 |
| 69 | 1 | 246/6 |
| 70 | 5 | 251/6 |
| 71 | 8 | 259/6 |
| 72 | 7 | 266/6 |
| 73 | 1 | 267/6 |
| 74 | 5 | 272/7 |
| 75 | 0 | 272/8 |
| 76 | 4 | 276/8 |
| 77 | 0 | 276/8 |
| 78 | 0 | 276/9 |
| 79 | 5 | 281/9 |
| 80 | 1 | 282/10 |
Angelo Mathews: paddynapper · CC BY-SA 2.0
Temba Bavuma: Michael Sherman · CC BY 3.0
Wiaan Mulder: EGilham · CC BY-SA 4.0
Marco Jansen: Storm machine · CC BY-SA 4.0
Aiden Markram: Marcel Sigg · CC0
Vishwa Fernando: Dave Morton · Public domain
Keshav Maharaj: Dave Morton · Public domain
Dinesh Chandimal: Amal316 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Kagiso Rabada: Blue Square Thing · CC BY-SA 4.0
Dimuth Karunaratne: Dave Morton · Public domain
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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