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Sri Lanka tour of South Africa · 2024/25 · Men
27 Nov 2024 · Test
Kingsmead, Durban · Venue photographRecorded result
South Africa more likely to win
Model tested on 119 past Tests it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings, plus how often Tests at this ground end in a draw. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Innings 3
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony de Zorzicaught · Asitha Fernando · Prabath Jayasuriya 2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Asitha Fernando · b Prabath Jayasuriya | 17 | 32 | 2 | 0 | 53.13 |
 Aiden Markrambowled · Vishwa Fernando4 fours · 1 sixes | bowled · b Vishwa Fernando | 47 | 81 | 4 | 1 | 58.02 |
 Wiaan Mulderlbw · Prabath Jayasuriya1 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Prabath Jayasuriya | 15 | 31 | 1 | 0 | 48.39 |
| Tristan Stubbsbowled · Vishwa Fernando 9 fours · 2 sixes |
| bowled · b Vishwa Fernando |
| 122 |
| 221 |
| 9 |
| 2 |
| 55.20 |
 Temba Bavumalbw · Asitha Fernando9 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Asitha Fernando | 113 | 228 | 9 | 0 | 49.56 |
|---|
| David Bedinghamnot out 2 fours · 1 sixes | not out | 21* | 11 | 2 | 1 | 190.91 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 6 · legbyes: 24 · wides: 1 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asitha Fernando2 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 17.4 | 2 | 54 | 1 | 3.06 | 1 | 0 |
 Vishwa Fernando2 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 18.0 | 2 | 64 | 2 | 3.56 | 0 | 0 |
| Lahiru Kumara5 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 18.0 | 5 | 43 | 0 | 2.39 | 0 | 0 |
| Prabath Jayasuriya2 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 40.0 | 2 | 132 | 2 | 3.30 | 0 | 0 |
| Dhananjaya de Silva0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 6.0 | 0 | 31 | 0 | 5.17 | 0 | 0 |
| Kamindu Mendis0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 12 | 0 | 12.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-47 (Tony de Zorzi, 11.5) · 2-77 (Wiaan Mulder, 21.4) · 3-89 (Aiden Markram, 24.4) · 4-338 (Tristan Stubbs, 96.5) · 5-366 (Temba Bavuma, 100.4)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | 1/0 |
| 2 | 8 | 9/0 |
| 3 | 2 | 11/0 |
| 4 | 5 | 16/0 |
| 5 | 10 | 26/0 |
| 6 | 2 | 28/0 |
| 7 | 6 | 34/0 |
| 8 | 0 | 34/0 |
| 9 | 0 | 34/0 |
| 10 | 8 | 42/0 |
| 11 | 3 | 45/0 |
| 12 | 2 | 47/1 |
| 13 | 1 | 48/1 |
| 14 | 7 | 55/1 |
| 15 | 0 | 55/1 |
| 16 | 5 | 60/1 |
| 17 | 4 | 64/1 |
| 18 | 4 | 68/1 |
| 19 | 0 | 68/1 |
| 20 | 4 | 72/1 |
| 21 | 4 | 76/1 |
| 22 | 1 | 77/2 |
| 23 | 5 | 82/2 |
| 24 | 1 | 83/2 |
| 25 | 6 | 89/3 |
| 26 | 0 | 89/3 |
| 27 | 1 | 90/3 |
| 28 | 2 | 92/3 |
| 29 | 3 | 95/3 |
| 30 | 4 | 99/3 |
| 31 | 1 | 100/3 |
| 32 | 2 | 102/3 |
| 33 | 2 | 104/3 |
| 34 | 7 | 111/3 |
| 35 | 5 | 116/3 |
| 36 | 4 | 120/3 |
| 37 | 4 | 124/3 |
| 38 | 6 | 130/3 |
| 39 | 0 | 130/3 |
| 40 | 2 | 132/3 |
| 41 | 5 | 137/3 |
| 42 | 1 | 138/3 |
| 43 | 2 | 140/3 |
| 44 | 2 | 142/3 |
| 45 | 1 | 143/3 |
| 46 | 0 | 143/3 |
| 47 | 0 | 143/3 |
| 48 | 4 | 147/3 |
| 49 | 2 | 149/3 |
| 50 | 4 | 153/3 |
| 51 | 6 | 159/3 |
| 52 | 1 | 160/3 |
| 53 | 6 | 166/3 |
| 54 | 3 | 169/3 |
| 55 | 2 | 171/3 |
| 56 | 5 | 176/3 |
| 57 | 2 | 178/3 |
| 58 | 4 | 182/3 |
| 59 | 5 | 187/3 |
| 60 | 6 | 193/3 |
| 61 | 1 | 194/3 |
| 62 | 6 | 200/3 |
| 63 | 1 | 201/3 |
| 64 | 3 | 204/3 |
| 65 | 4 | 208/3 |
| 66 | 0 | 208/3 |
| 67 | 6 | 214/3 |
| 68 | 2 | 216/3 |
| 69 | 2 | 218/3 |
| 70 | 9 | 227/3 |
| 71 | 2 | 229/3 |
| 72 | 3 | 232/3 |
| 73 | 1 | 233/3 |
| 74 | 2 | 235/3 |
| 75 | 2 | 237/3 |
| 76 | 4 | 241/3 |
| 77 | 5 | 246/3 |
| 78 | 7 | 253/3 |
| 79 | 1 | 254/3 |
| 80 | 12 | 266/3 |
| 81 | 3 | 269/3 |
| 82 | 5 | 274/3 |
| 83 | 4 | 278/3 |
| 84 | 2 | 280/3 |
| 85 | 4 | 284/3 |
| 86 | 5 | 289/3 |
| 87 | 7 | 296/3 |
| 88 | 1 | 297/3 |
| 89 | 3 | 300/3 |
| 90 | 5 | 305/3 |
| 91 | 6 | 311/3 |
| 92 | 3 | 314/3 |
| 93 | 3 | 317/3 |
| 94 | 2 | 319/3 |
| 95 | 10 | 329/3 |
| 96 | 3 | 332/3 |
| 97 | 10 | 342/4 |
| 98 | 9 | 351/4 |
| 99 | 6 | 357/4 |
| 100 | 8 | 365/4 |
| 101 | 1 | 366/5 |
Angelo Mathews: paddynapper · CC BY-SA 2.0
Temba Bavuma: Michael Sherman · CC BY 3.0
Wiaan Mulder: EGilham · CC BY-SA 4.0
Marco Jansen: Storm machine · CC BY-SA 4.0
Aiden Markram: Marcel Sigg · CC0
Vishwa Fernando: Dave Morton · Public domain
Keshav Maharaj: Dave Morton · Public domain
Dinesh Chandimal: Amal316 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Kagiso Rabada: Blue Square Thing · CC BY-SA 4.0
Dimuth Karunaratne: Dave Morton · Public domain
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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