**The County Ground, Chelmsford**
Photo: Paul Williams from United Kingdom
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY 2.0
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
Historical photograph; current appearance and conditions may differ.

Vitality Blast · 2024 · Men

SurreyversusEssex

14 Jul 2024 · T20

The County Ground, Chelmsford · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Surrey won by 13 runs

Surrey20.0 overs189/9 Essex20.0 overs176/8 The County Ground, Chelmsford ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Surrey started on 47%; Surrey batted first.

Surrey’s chance of winning (%) · Essex is the rest

Surrey's chances ranged from 30% to 99% during the match (Essex: 1% to 70%).

Biggest swings

10.3: MJJ Critchley to J Overton, J Overton out. Essex up from 57% to 70%.
2nd inns 12.3: J Clark to PI Walter, PI Walter out. Surrey up from 62% to 76%.
2nd inns 14.1: CJ Jordan to MJJ Critchley, MJJ Critchley out. Surrey up from 57% to 75%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Match details

Toss: Essex chose to field
match referees: JJ Swift
umpires: Hassan Adnan, RJ Bailey

Match history & source

On 14 Jul 2024, Surrey played Essex at The County Ground, Chelmsford. Recorded result: Surrey won by 13 runs.

Calculation date: 9 Nov 2026.

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