Adelaide StrikersversusSydney Thunder

6 Jan 2026 · T20

Adelaide Oval · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Adelaide Strikers won by 6 runs

Adelaide Strikers20.0 overs165/8 Sydney Thunder20.0 overs159/7 Adelaide Oval ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Adelaide Strikers started on 53%; Adelaide Strikers batted first.

Adelaide Strikers’s chance of winning (%) · Sydney Thunder is the rest

Adelaide Strikers's chances ranged from 18% to 96% during the match (Sydney Thunder: 4% to 82%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 16.2: L Pope to DR Sams, DR Sams out. Adelaide Strikers up from 29% to 48%.
2nd inns 18.4: J Overton to DJ Willey, six by DJ Willey. Sydney Thunder up from 36% to 64%.
2nd inns 18.5: J Overton to DJ Willey, DJ Willey out. Adelaide Strikers up from 36% to 62%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Adelaide Strikers165/8 Sydney Thunder159/7

Innings 1