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Photo: PaddyBriggs
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Australia tour of New Zealand · 2023/24 · Men
29 Feb 2024 · Test
Basin Reserve, Wellington · Venue photographRecorded result
Too close to call
Model tested on 119 past Tests it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings, plus how often Tests at this ground end in a draw. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Tom Lathambowled · Mitchell Starc1 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Mitchell Starc | 5 | 13 | 1 | 0 | 38.46 |
 Will Youngcaught · Alex Carey · Mitchell Marsh1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Alex Carey · b Mitchell Marsh | 9 | 50 | 1 | 0 | 18.00 |
 Kane Williamsonrun out · Marnus Labuschagne · Mitchell Starc0 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Marnus Labuschagne | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| caught · Nathan Lyon · b Josh Hazlewood |
| 0 |
| 3 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 0.00 |
| Daryl Mitchellcaught · Alex Carey · Pat Cummins 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Alex Carey · b Pat Cummins | 11 | 37 | 1 | 0 | 29.73 |
|---|
 Tom Blundellcaught · Travis Head · Nathan Lyon3 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Travis Head · b Nathan Lyon | 33 | 43 | 3 | 0 | 76.74 |
|---|
| Glenn Phillipscaught · Mitchell Starc · Josh Hazlewood 13 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Mitchell Starc · b Josh Hazlewood | 71 | 70 | 13 | 0 | 101.43 |
|---|
| Scott Kuggeleijncaught · Cameron Green · Nathan Lyon 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Cameron Green · b Nathan Lyon | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
 Matt Henrycaught · Marnus Labuschagne · Nathan Lyon3 fours · 4 sixes | caught · Marnus Labuschagne · b Nathan Lyon | 42 | 34 | 3 | 4 | 123.53 |
|---|
 Tim Southeecaught · Travis Head · Nathan Lyon0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Travis Head · b Nathan Lyon | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 20.00 |
|---|
 William O’Rourkenot out0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 0* | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 1 · legbyes: 3 · wides: 1 · noballs: 2 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Mitchell Starc4 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.0 | 4 | 34 | 1 | 3.78 | 1 | 0 |
 Josh Hazlewood0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 12.0 | 0 | 55 | 2 | 4.58 | 0 | 0 |
 Pat Cummins2 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 2 | 33 | 1 | 3.30 | 0 | 0 |
 Mitchell Marsh0 maidens · 0 wides · 2 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 10 | 1 | 2.50 | 0 | 2 |
 Nathan Lyon1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.1 | 1 | 43 | 4 | 5.27 | 0 | 0 |
1-12 (Tom Latham, 4.4) · 2-12 (Kane Williamson, 5.0) · 3-12 (Rachin Ravindra, 5.3) · 4-29 (Daryl Mitchell, 17.0) · 5-29 (Will Young, 17.1) · 6-113 (Tom Blundell, 31.3) · 7-113 (Scott Kuggeleijn, 31.5) · 8-161 (Glenn Phillips, 40.3) · 9-162 (Tim Southee, 41.4) · 10-179 (Matt Henry, 43.1)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | 0/0 |
| 2 | 5 | 5/0 |
| 3 | 0 | 5/0 |
| 4 | 3 | 8/0 |
| 5 | 4 | 12/2 |
| 6 | 1 | 13/3 |
| 7 | 1 | 14/3 |
| 8 | 1 | 15/3 |
| 9 | 0 | 15/3 |
| 10 | 1 | 16/3 |
| 11 | 0 | 16/3 |
| 12 | 1 | 17/3 |
| 13 | 0 | 17/3 |
| 14 | 1 | 18/3 |
| 15 | 2 | 20/3 |
| 16 | 2 | 22/3 |
| 17 | 7 | 29/4 |
| 18 | 4 | 33/5 |
| 19 | 5 | 38/5 |
| 20 | 3 | 41/5 |
| 21 | 1 | 42/5 |
| 22 | 8 | 50/5 |
| 23 | 6 | 56/5 |
| 24 | 9 | 65/5 |
| 25 | 13 | 78/5 |
| 26 | 2 | 80/5 |
| 27 | 9 | 89/5 |
| 28 | 9 | 98/5 |
| 29 | 2 | 100/5 |
| 30 | 6 | 106/5 |
| 31 | 6 | 112/5 |
| 32 | 1 | 113/7 |
| 33 | 3 | 116/7 |
| 34 | 7 | 123/7 |
| 35 | 6 | 129/7 |
| 36 | 11 | 140/7 |
| 37 | 4 | 144/7 |
| 38 | 3 | 147/7 |
| 39 | 6 | 153/7 |
| 40 | 6 | 159/7 |
| 41 | 3 | 162/8 |
| 42 | 2 | 164/9 |
| 43 | 15 | 179/9 |
| 44 | 0 | 179/10 |
Josh Hazlewood: EGilham · CC BY-SA 4.0
Mitchell Marsh: www.davidmolloyphotography.com · CC BY 2.0
Marnus Labuschagne: Ben Sutherland from Crystal Palace, London, UK · CC BY 2.0
Matt Henry: Blue Square Thing · CC BY-SA 4.0
Usman Khawaja: NAPARAZZI · CC BY-SA 2.0
Nathan Lyon: EGilham · CC BY-SA 4.0
Travis Head: Calistemon · CC BY-SA 4.0
Steve Smith: NAPARAZZI · CC BY-SA 2.0
Pat Cummins: SirWellsy99 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Alex Carey: Calistemon · CC BY-SA 4.0
Mitchell Starc: Dave Morton · Public domain
William O’Rourke: Dave Morton · Public domain
Will Young: Dave Morton · Public domain
Rachin Ravindra: JaumeBG · CC BY-SA 4.0
Tom Latham: Robert Drummond · CC0
Cameron Green: Calistemon · CC BY-SA 4.0
Tim Southee: YellowMonkey/Blnguyen · CC BY-SA 4.0
Kane Williamson: Mark Lockett · CC BY-SA 2.0
Tom Blundell: www.davidmolloyphotography.com · CC BY 2.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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