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Australia tour of New Zealand · 2023/24 · Men
29 Feb 2024 · Test
Basin Reserve, Wellington · Venue photographRecorded result
Too close to call
Model tested on 119 past Tests it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings, plus how often Tests at this ground end in a draw. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Steve Smithcaught · Tom Blundell · Matt Henry4 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Tom Blundell · b Matt Henry | 31 | 71 | 4 | 0 | 43.66 |
 Usman Khawajabowled · Matt Henry3 fours · 1 sixes | bowled · b Matt Henry | 33 | 118 | 3 | 1 | 27.97 |
 Marnus Labuschagnecaught · Daryl Mitchell · Scott Kuggeleijn0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Daryl Mitchell · b Scott Kuggeleijn | 1 | 27 | 0 | 0 | 3.70 |
| not out |
| 174* |
| 275 |
| 23 |
| 5 |
| 63.27 |
 Travis Headcaught · Tom Blundell · William O’Rourke0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Tom Blundell · b William O’Rourke | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 16.67 |
|---|
 Mitchell Marshcaught · Tom Blundell · Matt Henry6 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Tom Blundell · b Matt Henry | 40 | 39 | 6 | 1 | 102.56 |
|---|
 Alex Careycaught · Kane Williamson · Scott Kuggeleijn0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Kane Williamson · b Scott Kuggeleijn | 10 | 20 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
|---|
 Mitchell Starccaught · Tom Latham · William O’Rourke1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Tom Latham · b William O’Rourke | 9 | 33 | 1 | 0 | 27.27 |
|---|
 Pat Cumminslbw · Rachin Ravindra0 fours · 2 sixes | lbw · b Rachin Ravindra | 16 | 24 | 0 | 2 | 66.67 |
|---|
 Nathan Lyoncaught · Tom Blundell · Matt Henry1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Tom Blundell · b Matt Henry | 5 | 19 | 1 | 0 | 26.32 |
|---|
 Josh Hazlewoodcaught · Rachin Ravindra · Matt Henry4 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Rachin Ravindra · b Matt Henry | 22 | 62 | 4 | 0 | 35.48 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 12 · legbyes: 6 · wides: 20 · noballs: 3 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Tim Southee4 maidens · 0 wides · 2 no-balls | 27.0 | 4 | 92 | 0 | 3.41 | 0 | 2 |
 Matt Henry11 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 30.1 | 11 | 70 | 5 | 2.32 | 2 | 0 |
 William O’Rourke10 maidens · 11 wides · 0 no-balls | 27.0 | 10 | 87 | 2 | 3.22 | 11 | 0 |
| Scott Kuggeleijn1 maidens · 7 wides · 1 no-balls | 20.0 | 1 | 75 | 2 | 3.75 | 7 | 1 |
| Daryl Mitchell0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 17 | 0 | 4.25 | 0 | 0 |
 Rachin Ravindra1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 7.0 | 1 | 24 | 1 | 3.43 | 0 | 0 |
1-61 (Steve Smith, 24.1) · 2-65 (Marnus Labuschagne, 31.0) · 3-88 (Usman Khawaja, 40.2) · 4-89 (Travis Head, 41.3) · 5-156 (Mitchell Marsh, 54.2) · 6-176 (Alex Carey, 62.1) · 7-211 (Mitchell Starc, 71.2) · 8-244 (Pat Cummins, 78.5) · 9-267 (Nathan Lyon, 84.0) · 10-383 (Josh Hazlewood, 115.1)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | 1/0 |
| 2 | 8 | 9/0 |
| 3 | 4 | 13/0 |
| 4 | 0 | 13/0 |
| 5 | 4 | 17/0 |
| 6 | 0 | 17/0 |
| 7 | 0 | 17/0 |
| 8 | 4 | 21/0 |
| 9 | 2 | 23/0 |
| 10 | 0 | 23/0 |
| 11 | 2 | 25/0 |
| 12 | 2 | 27/0 |
| 13 | 0 | 27/0 |
| 14 | 0 | 27/0 |
| 15 | 0 | 27/0 |
| 16 | 0 | 27/0 |
| 17 | 3 | 30/0 |
| 18 | 4 | 34/0 |
| 19 | 3 | 37/0 |
| 20 | 7 | 44/0 |
| 21 | 10 | 54/0 |
| 22 | 4 | 58/0 |
| 23 | 2 | 60/0 |
| 24 | 1 | 61/0 |
| 25 | 1 | 62/1 |
| 26 | 0 | 62/1 |
| 27 | 0 | 62/1 |
| 28 | 0 | 62/1 |
| 29 | 1 | 63/1 |
| 30 | 1 | 64/1 |
| 31 | 1 | 65/2 |
| 32 | 1 | 66/2 |
| 33 | 3 | 69/2 |
| 34 | 2 | 71/2 |
| 35 | 1 | 72/2 |
| 36 | 4 | 76/2 |
| 37 | 2 | 78/2 |
| 38 | 9 | 87/2 |
| 39 | 1 | 88/2 |
| 40 | 0 | 88/2 |
| 41 | 1 | 89/3 |
| 42 | 4 | 93/4 |
| 43 | 6 | 99/4 |
| 44 | 10 | 109/4 |
| 45 | 1 | 110/4 |
| 46 | 13 | 123/4 |
| 47 | 0 | 123/4 |
| 48 | 1 | 124/4 |
| 49 | 4 | 128/4 |
| 50 | 2 | 130/4 |
| 51 | 6 | 136/4 |
| 52 | 4 | 140/4 |
| 53 | 7 | 147/4 |
| 54 | 9 | 156/4 |
| 55 | 2 | 158/5 |
| 56 | 4 | 162/5 |
| 57 | 3 | 165/5 |
| 58 | 1 | 166/5 |
| 59 | 4 | 170/5 |
| 60 | 1 | 171/5 |
| 61 | 0 | 171/5 |
| 62 | 5 | 176/5 |
| 63 | 1 | 177/6 |
| 64 | 6 | 183/6 |
| 65 | 1 | 184/6 |
| 66 | 4 | 188/6 |
| 67 | 4 | 192/6 |
| 68 | 4 | 196/6 |
| 69 | 1 | 197/6 |
| 70 | 9 | 206/6 |
| 71 | 5 | 211/6 |
| 72 | 0 | 211/7 |
| 73 | 1 | 212/7 |
| 74 | 11 | 223/7 |
| 75 | 9 | 232/7 |
| 76 | 0 | 232/7 |
| 77 | 2 | 234/7 |
| 78 | 3 | 237/7 |
| 79 | 7 | 244/8 |
| 80 | 1 | 245/8 |
| 81 | 9 | 254/8 |
| 82 | 2 | 256/8 |
| 83 | 4 | 260/8 |
| 84 | 7 | 267/9 |
| 85 | 12 | 279/9 |
| 86 | 0 | 279/9 |
| 87 | 4 | 283/9 |
| 88 | 2 | 285/9 |
| 89 | 1 | 286/9 |
| 90 | 2 | 288/9 |
| 91 | 6 | 294/9 |
| 92 | 6 | 300/9 |
| 93 | 8 | 308/9 |
| 94 | 6 | 314/9 |
| 95 | 9 | 323/9 |
| 96 | 9 | 332/9 |
| 97 | 0 | 332/9 |
| 98 | 0 | 332/9 |
| 99 | 4 | 336/9 |
| 100 | 2 | 338/9 |
| 101 | 1 | 339/9 |
| 102 | 6 | 345/9 |
| 103 | 0 | 345/9 |
| 104 | 11 | 356/9 |
| 105 | 6 | 362/9 |
| 106 | 6 | 368/9 |
| 107 | 2 | 370/9 |
| 108 | 2 | 372/9 |
| 109 | 1 | 373/9 |
| 110 | 0 | 373/9 |
| 111 | 4 | 377/9 |
| 112 | 0 | 377/9 |
| 113 | 0 | 377/9 |
| 114 | 1 | 378/9 |
| 115 | 4 | 382/9 |
| 116 | 1 | 383/10 |
Josh Hazlewood: EGilham · CC BY-SA 4.0
Mitchell Marsh: www.davidmolloyphotography.com · CC BY 2.0
Marnus Labuschagne: Ben Sutherland from Crystal Palace, London, UK · CC BY 2.0
Matt Henry: Blue Square Thing · CC BY-SA 4.0
Usman Khawaja: NAPARAZZI · CC BY-SA 2.0
Nathan Lyon: EGilham · CC BY-SA 4.0
Travis Head: Calistemon · CC BY-SA 4.0
Steve Smith: NAPARAZZI · CC BY-SA 2.0
Pat Cummins: SirWellsy99 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Alex Carey: Calistemon · CC BY-SA 4.0
Mitchell Starc: Dave Morton · Public domain
William O’Rourke: Dave Morton · Public domain
Will Young: Dave Morton · Public domain
Rachin Ravindra: JaumeBG · CC BY-SA 4.0
Tom Latham: Robert Drummond · CC0
Cameron Green: Calistemon · CC BY-SA 4.0
Tim Southee: YellowMonkey/Blnguyen · CC BY-SA 4.0
Kane Williamson: Mark Lockett · CC BY-SA 2.0
Tom Blundell: www.davidmolloyphotography.com · CC BY 2.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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