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Photo: PaddyBriggs
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Australia tour of New Zealand · 2023/24 · Men
29 Feb 2024 · Test
Basin Reserve, Wellington · Venue photographRecorded result
Too close to call
Model tested on 119 past Tests it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings, plus how often Tests at this ground end in a draw. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Innings 3
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Steve Smithbowled · Tim Southee0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Tim Southee | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
 Usman Khawajastumped · Tom Blundell · Glenn Phillips1 fours · 0 sixes | stumped · Tom Blundell · b Glenn Phillips | 28 | 69 | 1 | 0 | 40.58 |
 Marnus Labuschagnecaught · Tom Blundell · Tim Southee0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Tom Blundell · b Tim Southee | 2 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 15.38 |
| caught · Will Young · b Matt Henry |
| 41 |
| 46 |
| 6 |
| 0 |
| 89.13 |
 Cameron Greencaught · Will Young · Glenn Phillips3 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Will Young · b Glenn Phillips | 34 | 80 | 3 | 1 | 42.50 |
|---|
 Travis Headcaught · Scott Kuggeleijn · Glenn Phillips4 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Scott Kuggeleijn · b Glenn Phillips | 29 | 36 | 4 | 0 | 80.56 |
|---|
 Mitchell Marshcaught · Will Young · Glenn Phillips0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Will Young · b Glenn Phillips | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
 Alex Careycaught · Tim Southee · Glenn Phillips0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Tim Southee · b Glenn Phillips | 3 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 33.33 |
|---|
 Mitchell Starcbowled · Matt Henry2 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Matt Henry | 12 | 27 | 2 | 0 | 44.44 |
|---|
 Pat Cumminscaught · Tom Latham · Matt Henry1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Tom Latham · b Matt Henry | 8 | 15 | 1 | 0 | 53.33 |
|---|
 Josh Hazlewoodnot out0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 1* | 8 | 0 | 0 | 12.50 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 5 · legbyes: 1 · wides: 0 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Tim Southee2 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 11.1 | 2 | 46 | 2 | 4.12 | 0 | 0 |
 Matt Henry1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 12.1 | 1 | 36 | 3 | 2.96 | 0 | 0 |
| Scott Kuggeleijn0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 18 | 0 | 6.00 | 0 | 0 |
 William O’Rourke4 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 7.5 | 4 | 11 | 0 | 1.40 | 0 | 0 |
| Glenn Phillips4 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 16.0 | 4 | 45 | 5 | 2.81 | 0 | 0 |
 Rachin Ravindra0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-0 (Steve Smith, 0.3) · 2-4 (Marnus Labuschagne, 4.4) · 3-53 (Nathan Lyon, 16.0) · 4-81 (Usman Khawaja, 26.5) · 5-127 (Travis Head, 38.2) · 6-127 (Mitchell Marsh, 38.3) · 7-139 (Alex Carey, 42.2) · 8-146 (Cameron Green, 44.2) · 9-159 (Pat Cummins, 47.5) · 10-164 (Mitchell Starc, 51.1)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | 0/1 |
| 2 | 0 | 0/1 |
| 3 | 2 | 2/1 |
| 4 | 2 | 4/1 |
| 5 | 0 | 4/2 |
| 6 | 5 | 9/2 |
| 7 | 3 | 12/2 |
| 8 | 1 | 13/2 |
| 9 | 3 | 16/2 |
| 10 | 2 | 18/2 |
| 11 | 5 | 23/2 |
| 12 | 3 | 26/2 |
| 13 | 4 | 30/2 |
| 14 | 4 | 34/2 |
| 15 | 13 | 47/2 |
| 16 | 6 | 53/3 |
| 17 | 5 | 58/3 |
| 18 | 6 | 64/3 |
| 19 | 4 | 68/3 |
| 20 | 0 | 68/3 |
| 21 | 3 | 71/3 |
| 22 | 0 | 71/3 |
| 23 | 2 | 73/3 |
| 24 | 2 | 75/3 |
| 25 | 5 | 80/3 |
| 26 | 1 | 81/3 |
| 27 | 0 | 81/4 |
| 28 | 0 | 81/4 |
| 29 | 1 | 82/4 |
| 30 | 4 | 86/4 |
| 31 | 1 | 87/4 |
| 32 | 0 | 87/4 |
| 33 | 9 | 96/4 |
| 34 | 9 | 105/4 |
| 35 | 8 | 113/4 |
| 36 | 6 | 119/4 |
| 37 | 3 | 122/4 |
| 38 | 5 | 127/4 |
| 39 | 0 | 127/6 |
| 40 | 6 | 133/6 |
| 41 | 3 | 136/6 |
| 42 | 2 | 138/6 |
| 43 | 4 | 142/7 |
| 44 | 4 | 146/7 |
| 45 | 1 | 147/8 |
| 46 | 1 | 148/8 |
| 47 | 10 | 158/8 |
| 48 | 1 | 159/9 |
| 49 | 0 | 159/9 |
| 50 | 5 | 164/9 |
| 51 | 0 | 164/9 |
| 52 | 0 | 164/10 |
Josh Hazlewood: EGilham · CC BY-SA 4.0
Mitchell Marsh: www.davidmolloyphotography.com · CC BY 2.0
Marnus Labuschagne: Ben Sutherland from Crystal Palace, London, UK · CC BY 2.0
Matt Henry: Blue Square Thing · CC BY-SA 4.0
Usman Khawaja: NAPARAZZI · CC BY-SA 2.0
Nathan Lyon: EGilham · CC BY-SA 4.0
Travis Head: Calistemon · CC BY-SA 4.0
Steve Smith: NAPARAZZI · CC BY-SA 2.0
Pat Cummins: SirWellsy99 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Alex Carey: Calistemon · CC BY-SA 4.0
Mitchell Starc: Dave Morton · Public domain
William O’Rourke: Dave Morton · Public domain
Will Young: Dave Morton · Public domain
Rachin Ravindra: JaumeBG · CC BY-SA 4.0
Tom Latham: Robert Drummond · CC0
Cameron Green: Calistemon · CC BY-SA 4.0
Tim Southee: YellowMonkey/Blnguyen · CC BY-SA 4.0
Kane Williamson: Mark Lockett · CC BY-SA 2.0
Tom Blundell: www.davidmolloyphotography.com · CC BY 2.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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