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India tour of England · 2025 · Men
20 Jun 2025 · Test
Headingley · Venue photographRecorded result
England more likely to win
Model tested on 119 past Tests it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings, plus how often Tests at this ground end in a draw. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Yashasvi Jaiswalbowled · Ben Stokes16 fours · 1 sixes | bowled · b Ben Stokes | 101 | 159 | 16 | 1 | 63.52 |
 KL Rahulcaught · Joe Root · Brydon Carse8 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Joe Root · b Brydon Carse | 42 | 78 | 8 | 0 | 53.85 |
| Sai Sudharsancaught · Jamie Smith · Ben Stokes 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Jamie Smith · b Ben Stokes | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
 Shubman Gill |
| caught · Josh Tongue · b Shoaib Bashir |
| 147 |
| 227 |
| 19 |
| 1 |
| 64.76 |
 Rishabh Pantlbw · Josh Tongue12 fours · 6 sixes | lbw · b Josh Tongue | 134 | 178 | 12 | 6 | 75.28 |
|---|
 Karun Naircaught · Ollie Pope · Ben Stokes0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Ollie Pope · b Ben Stokes | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
 Ravindra Jadejabowled · Josh Tongue2 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Josh Tongue | 11 | 15 | 2 | 0 | 73.33 |
|---|
| Shardul Thakurcaught · Jamie Smith · Ben Stokes 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Jamie Smith · b Ben Stokes | 1 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 12.50 |
|---|
 Jasprit Bumrahcaught · Harry Brook · Josh Tongue0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Harry Brook · b Josh Tongue | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
 Mohammed Sirajnot out0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 3* | 7 | 0 | 0 | 42.86 |
|---|
| Prasidh Krishnabowled · Josh Tongue 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Josh Tongue | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 33.33 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 1 · legbyes: 14 · wides: 2 · noballs: 9 · penalty: 5 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Chris Woakes4 maidens · 0 wides · 4 no-balls | 24.0 | 4 | 103 | 0 | 4.29 | 0 | 4 |
 Brydon Carse5 maidens · 1 wides · 3 no-balls | 22.0 | 5 | 96 | 1 | 4.36 | 1 | 3 |
| Josh Tongue0 maidens · 0 wides · 1 no-balls | 20.0 | 0 | 86 | 4 | 4.30 | 0 | 1 |
 Ben Stokes2 maidens · 1 wides · 1 no-balls | 20.1 | 2 | 66 | 4 | 3.27 | 1 | 1 |
| Shoaib Bashir6 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 27.0 | 6 | 100 | 1 | 3.70 | 0 | 0 |
1-91 (KL Rahul, 24.5) · 2-92 (Sai Sudharsan, 25.4) · 3-221 (Yashasvi Jaiswal, 52.4) · 4-430 (Shubman Gill, 102.0) · 5-447 (Karun Nair, 105.1) · 6-453 (Rishabh Pant, 107.3) · 7-454 (Shardul Thakur, 108.5) · 8-458 (Jasprit Bumrah, 110.4) · 9-469 (Ravindra Jadeja, 112.2) · 10-471 (Prasidh Krishna, 113.1)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | 4/0 |
| 2 | 0 | 4/0 |
| 3 | 6 | 10/0 |
| 4 | 4 | 14/0 |
| 5 | 1 | 15/0 |
| 6 | 8 | 23/0 |
| 7 | 3 | 26/0 |
| 8 | 0 | 26/0 |
| 9 | 0 | 26/0 |
| 10 | 1 | 27/0 |
| 11 | 5 | 32/0 |
| 12 | 4 | 36/0 |
| 13 | 4 | 40/0 |
| 14 | 4 | 44/0 |
| 15 | 8 | 52/0 |
| 16 | 0 | 52/0 |
| 17 | 2 | 54/0 |
| 18 | 1 | 55/0 |
| 19 | 3 | 58/0 |
| 20 | 10 | 68/0 |
| 21 | 9 | 77/0 |
| 22 | 5 | 82/0 |
| 23 | 5 | 87/0 |
| 24 | 4 | 91/0 |
| 25 | 0 | 91/1 |
| 26 | 2 | 93/2 |
| 27 | 5 | 98/2 |
| 28 | 0 | 98/2 |
| 29 | 7 | 105/2 |
| 30 | 2 | 107/2 |
| 31 | 5 | 112/2 |
| 32 | 12 | 124/2 |
| 33 | 4 | 128/2 |
| 34 | 4 | 132/2 |
| 35 | 3 | 135/2 |
| 36 | 7 | 142/2 |
| 37 | 3 | 145/2 |
| 38 | 13 | 158/2 |
| 39 | 1 | 159/2 |
| 40 | 6 | 165/2 |
| 41 | 7 | 172/2 |
| 42 | 5 | 177/2 |
| 43 | 6 | 183/2 |
| 44 | 0 | 183/2 |
| 45 | 5 | 188/2 |
| 46 | 7 | 195/2 |
| 47 | 0 | 195/2 |
| 48 | 1 | 196/2 |
| 49 | 13 | 209/2 |
| 50 | 0 | 209/2 |
| 51 | 6 | 215/2 |
| 52 | 6 | 221/2 |
| 53 | 5 | 226/3 |
| 54 | 0 | 226/3 |
| 55 | 3 | 229/3 |
| 56 | 2 | 231/3 |
| 57 | 3 | 234/3 |
| 58 | 2 | 236/3 |
| 59 | 3 | 239/3 |
| 60 | 3 | 242/3 |
| 61 | 1 | 243/3 |
| 62 | 4 | 247/3 |
| 63 | 6 | 253/3 |
| 64 | 0 | 253/3 |
| 65 | 6 | 259/3 |
| 66 | 3 | 262/3 |
| 67 | 4 | 266/3 |
| 68 | 5 | 271/3 |
| 69 | 4 | 275/3 |
| 70 | 1 | 276/3 |
| 71 | 2 | 278/3 |
| 72 | 6 | 284/3 |
| 73 | 6 | 290/3 |
| 74 | 10 | 300/3 |
| 75 | 12 | 312/3 |
| 76 | 6 | 318/3 |
| 77 | 4 | 322/3 |
| 78 | 2 | 324/3 |
| 79 | 6 | 330/3 |
| 80 | 1 | 331/3 |
| 81 | 7 | 338/3 |
| 82 | 12 | 350/3 |
| 83 | 1 | 351/3 |
| 84 | 0 | 351/3 |
| 85 | 8 | 359/3 |
| 86 | 1 | 360/3 |
| 87 | 4 | 364/3 |
| 88 | 4 | 368/3 |
| 89 | 0 | 368/3 |
| 90 | 6 | 374/3 |
| 91 | 1 | 375/3 |
| 92 | 5 | 380/3 |
| 93 | 9 | 389/3 |
| 94 | 4 | 393/3 |
| 95 | 0 | 393/3 |
| 96 | 11 | 404/3 |
| 97 | 5 | 409/3 |
| 98 | 3 | 412/3 |
| 99 | 1 | 413/3 |
| 100 | 13 | 426/3 |
| 101 | 4 | 430/3 |
| 102 | 0 | 430/4 |
| 103 | 5 | 435/4 |
| 104 | 7 | 442/4 |
| 105 | 5 | 447/5 |
| 106 | 3 | 450/5 |
| 107 | 3 | 453/5 |
| 108 | 1 | 454/6 |
| 109 | 0 | 454/7 |
| 110 | 0 | 454/7 |
| 111 | 9 | 463/8 |
| 112 | 6 | 469/8 |
| 113 | 2 | 471/10 |
Harry Brook: Dave Morton · Public domain
Jasprit Bumrah: CRICKETNEXT · CC BY 3.0
Brydon Carse: Dave Morton · Public domain
Ollie Pope: Kroome111 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Yashasvi Jaiswal: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
Ben Duckett: Charltonkyle · CC BY-SA 4.0
Rishabh Pant: Ben Sutherland from Crystal Palace, London, UK · CC BY 2.0
Mohammed Siraj: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
Jamie Smith: Dave Morton · Public domain
KL Rahul: NAPARAZZI · CC BY-SA 2.0
Joe Root: Dave Morton · Public domain
Zak Crawley: Dave Morton · Public domain
Ravindra Jadeja: SR Vlogs · CC BY 3.0
Chris Woakes: Storm machine · CC BY-SA 4.0
Shubman Gill: Bollywood Hungama · CC BY 3.0
Karun Nair: User:Vishu@2008 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Ben Stokes: NAPARAZZI · CC BY-SA 2.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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