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Photo: NZDF
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY 4.0
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South Africa tour of New Zealand · 2023/24 · Men
4 Feb 2024 · Test
Bay Oval, Mount Maunganui · Venue photographRecorded result
New Zealand more likely to win
Model tested on 119 past Tests it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings, plus how often Tests at this ground end in a draw. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edward Moorecaught · Devon Conway · Matt Henry 4 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Devon Conway · b Matt Henry | 23 | 50 | 4 | 0 | 46.00 |
| Neil Brandcaught · Tom Blundell · Kyle Jamieson 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Tom Blundell · b Kyle Jamieson | 4 | 23 | 0 | 0 | 17.39 |
| Raynard van Tonderlbw · Kyle Jamieson 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Kyle Jamieson | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Zubayr Hamzabowled · Mitchell Santner 4 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Mitchell Santner | 22 | 38 | 4 | 0 | 57.89 |
| David Bedinghamcaught · Mitchell Santner · Matt Henry5 fours · 0 sixes |
| caught · Mitchell Santner · b Matt Henry |
| 32 |
| 58 |
| 5 |
| 0 |
| 55.17 |
| Keegan Petersencaught · Kane Williamson · Rachin Ravindra 6 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Kane Williamson · b Rachin Ravindra | 45 | 132 | 6 | 0 | 34.09 |
|---|
| Ruan de Swardtlbw · Matt Henry 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Matt Henry | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Clyde Fortuincaught · Tim Southee · Mitchell Santner 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Tim Southee · b Mitchell Santner | 9 | 52 | 1 | 0 | 17.31 |
|---|
 Duanne Oliviernot out3 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 15* | 56 | 3 | 0 | 26.79 |
|---|
| Tshepo Morekibowled · Mitchell Santner 1 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Mitchell Santner | 5 | 19 | 1 | 0 | 26.32 |
|---|
 Dane Patersonbowled · Rachin Ravindra0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Rachin Ravindra | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 16.67 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 2 · legbyes: 3 · wides: 0 · noballs: 1 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Tim Southee3 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 13.0 | 3 | 41 | 0 | 3.15 | 0 | 0 |
 Matt Henry6 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 14.0 | 6 | 31 | 3 | 2.21 | 0 | 0 |
 Kyle Jamieson6 maidens · 0 wides · 1 no-balls | 15.0 | 6 | 35 | 2 | 2.33 | 0 | 1 |
| Mitchell Santner8 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 21.0 | 8 | 34 | 3 | 1.62 | 0 | 0 |
 Rachin Ravindra5 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.5 | 5 | 16 | 2 | 1.63 | 0 | 0 |
1-26 (Neil Brand, 9.4) · 2-26 (Raynard van Tonder, 10.0) · 3-30 (Edward Moore, 14.5) · 4-74 (Zubayr Hamza, 23.4) · 5-83 (David Bedingham, 33.4) · 6-83 (Ruan de Swardt, 34.0) · 7-120 (Clyde Fortuin, 51.5) · 8-152 (Keegan Petersen, 65.0) · 9-161 (Tshepo Moreki, 71.3) · 10-162 (Dane Paterson, 72.5)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | 8/0 |
| 2 | 3 | 11/0 |
| 3 | 3 | 14/0 |
| 4 | 2 | 16/0 |
| 5 | 0 | 16/0 |
| 6 | 0 | 16/0 |
| 7 | 5 | 21/0 |
| 8 | 4 | 25/0 |
| 9 | 1 | 26/0 |
| 10 | 0 | 26/2 |
| 11 | 0 | 26/2 |
| 12 | 3 | 29/2 |
| 13 | 0 | 29/2 |
| 14 | 0 | 29/2 |
| 15 | 1 | 30/3 |
| 16 | 2 | 32/3 |
| 17 | 9 | 41/3 |
| 18 | 12 | 53/3 |
| 19 | 0 | 53/3 |
| 20 | 5 | 58/3 |
| 21 | 4 | 62/3 |
| 22 | 6 | 68/3 |
| 23 | 6 | 74/3 |
| 24 | 1 | 75/4 |
| 25 | 3 | 78/4 |
| 26 | 0 | 78/4 |
| 27 | 1 | 79/4 |
| 28 | 1 | 80/4 |
| 29 | 0 | 80/4 |
| 30 | 0 | 80/4 |
| 31 | 1 | 81/4 |
| 32 | 1 | 82/4 |
| 33 | 1 | 83/4 |
| 34 | 0 | 83/6 |
| 35 | 2 | 85/6 |
| 36 | 6 | 91/6 |
| 37 | 0 | 91/6 |
| 38 | 2 | 93/6 |
| 39 | 0 | 93/6 |
| 40 | 6 | 99/6 |
| 41 | 3 | 102/6 |
| 42 | 1 | 103/6 |
| 43 | 0 | 103/6 |
| 44 | 3 | 106/6 |
| 45 | 0 | 106/6 |
| 46 | 3 | 109/6 |
| 47 | 4 | 113/6 |
| 48 | 1 | 114/6 |
| 49 | 5 | 119/6 |
| 50 | 0 | 119/6 |
| 51 | 1 | 120/6 |
| 52 | 0 | 120/7 |
| 53 | 0 | 120/7 |
| 54 | 2 | 122/7 |
| 55 | 7 | 129/7 |
| 56 | 0 | 129/7 |
| 57 | 0 | 129/7 |
| 58 | 2 | 131/7 |
| 59 | 9 | 140/7 |
| 60 | 1 | 141/7 |
| 61 | 0 | 141/7 |
| 62 | 4 | 145/7 |
| 63 | 7 | 152/7 |
| 64 | 0 | 152/7 |
| 65 | 0 | 152/8 |
| 66 | 4 | 156/8 |
| 67 | 0 | 156/8 |
| 68 | 0 | 156/8 |
| 69 | 1 | 157/8 |
| 70 | 4 | 161/8 |
| 71 | 0 | 161/8 |
| 72 | 1 | 162/9 |
| 73 | 0 | 162/10 |
Kyle Jamieson: Photographer - David Hollander · CC BY 3.0 nz
Matt Henry: Blue Square Thing · CC BY-SA 4.0
Duanne Olivier: Dave Morton · Public domain
Dane Paterson: Dave Morton · Public domain
Rachin Ravindra: JaumeBG · CC BY-SA 4.0
Tom Latham: Robert Drummond · CC0
Tim Southee: YellowMonkey/Blnguyen · CC BY-SA 4.0
Kane Williamson: Mark Lockett · CC BY-SA 2.0
Tom Blundell: www.davidmolloyphotography.com · CC BY 2.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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