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Photo: NZDF
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South Africa tour of New Zealand · 2023/24 · Men
4 Feb 2024 · Test
Bay Oval, Mount Maunganui · Venue photographRecorded result
New Zealand more likely to win
Model tested on 119 past Tests it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings, plus how often Tests at this ground end in a draw. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Innings 4
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edward Moorecaught · Devon Conway · Matt Henry 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Devon Conway · b Matt Henry | 0 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Neil Brandbowled · Tim Southee 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Tim Southee | 3 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 37.50 |
| Raynard van Tondercaught · Tom Latham · Kyle Jamieson 2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Tom Latham · b Kyle Jamieson | 31 | 83 | 2 | 0 | 37.35 |
| Zubayr Hamzacaught · Tim Southee · Kyle Jamieson 4 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Tim Southee · b Kyle Jamieson | 36 | 92 | 4 | 0 | 39.13 |
| David Bedinghamcaught · Mitchell Santner · Kyle Jamieson13 fours · 3 sixes |
| caught · Mitchell Santner · b Kyle Jamieson |
| 87 |
| 96 |
| 13 |
| 3 |
| 90.63 |
| Keegan Petersencaught · Rachin Ravindra · Kyle Jamieson 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Rachin Ravindra · b Kyle Jamieson | 16 | 63 | 1 | 0 | 25.40 |
|---|
| Ruan de Swardtnot out 4 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 34* | 56 | 4 | 0 | 60.71 |
|---|
| Clyde Fortuincaught · Tom Blundell · Glenn Phillips 2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Tom Blundell · b Glenn Phillips | 11 | 19 | 2 | 0 | 57.89 |
|---|
 Duanne Oliviercaught · Daryl Mitchell · Mitchell Santner0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Daryl Mitchell · b Mitchell Santner | 1 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 11.11 |
|---|
| Tshepo Morekilbw · Mitchell Santner 1 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Mitchell Santner | 6 | 31 | 1 | 0 | 19.35 |
|---|
 Dane Patersoncaught · Kane Williamson · Mitchell Santner3 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Kane Williamson · b Mitchell Santner | 15 | 17 | 3 | 0 | 88.24 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 1 · legbyes: 2 · wides: 2 · noballs: 2 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Tim Southee3 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 3 | 46 | 1 | 4.60 | 0 | 0 |
 Matt Henry3 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 11.0 | 3 | 33 | 1 | 3.00 | 0 | 0 |
 Kyle Jamieson3 maidens · 2 wides · 1 no-balls | 17.0 | 3 | 58 | 4 | 3.41 | 2 | 1 |
| Mitchell Santner9 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 26.0 | 9 | 59 | 3 | 2.27 | 0 | 0 |
| Glenn Phillips1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.0 | 1 | 30 | 1 | 3.33 | 0 | 0 |
 Rachin Ravindra2 maidens · 0 wides · 1 no-balls | 7.0 | 2 | 18 | 0 | 2.57 | 0 | 1 |
1-3 (Neil Brand, 2.3) · 2-5 (Edward Moore, 3.1) · 3-68 (Raynard van Tonder, 30.2) · 4-73 (Zubayr Hamza, 33.0) · 5-178 (David Bedingham, 56.3) · 6-181 (Keegan Petersen, 59.0) · 7-199 (Clyde Fortuin, 65.5) · 8-208 (Duanne Olivier, 68.2) · 9-223 (Tshepo Moreki, 76.0) · 10-247 (Dane Paterson, 80.0)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | 0/0 |
| 2 | 3 | 3/0 |
| 3 | 2 | 5/1 |
| 4 | 0 | 5/2 |
| 5 | 3 | 8/2 |
| 6 | 0 | 8/2 |
| 7 | 1 | 9/2 |
| 8 | 1 | 10/2 |
| 9 | 2 | 12/2 |
| 10 | 4 | 16/2 |
| 11 | 5 | 21/2 |
| 12 | 2 | 23/2 |
| 13 | 3 | 26/2 |
| 14 | 4 | 30/2 |
| 15 | 1 | 31/2 |
| 16 | 0 | 31/2 |
| 17 | 1 | 32/2 |
| 18 | 3 | 35/2 |
| 19 | 0 | 35/2 |
| 20 | 4 | 39/2 |
| 21 | 5 | 44/2 |
| 22 | 6 | 50/2 |
| 23 | 4 | 54/2 |
| 24 | 1 | 55/2 |
| 25 | 4 | 59/2 |
| 26 | 3 | 62/2 |
| 27 | 0 | 62/2 |
| 28 | 0 | 62/2 |
| 29 | 4 | 66/2 |
| 30 | 2 | 68/2 |
| 31 | 0 | 68/3 |
| 32 | 0 | 68/3 |
| 33 | 5 | 73/4 |
| 34 | 3 | 76/4 |
| 35 | 12 | 88/4 |
| 36 | 0 | 88/4 |
| 37 | 1 | 89/4 |
| 38 | 2 | 91/4 |
| 39 | 1 | 92/4 |
| 40 | 7 | 99/4 |
| 41 | 2 | 101/4 |
| 42 | 0 | 101/4 |
| 43 | 0 | 101/4 |
| 44 | 0 | 101/4 |
| 45 | 1 | 102/4 |
| 46 | 0 | 102/4 |
| 47 | 19 | 121/4 |
| 48 | 4 | 125/4 |
| 49 | 0 | 125/4 |
| 50 | 5 | 130/4 |
| 51 | 6 | 136/4 |
| 52 | 7 | 143/4 |
| 53 | 11 | 154/4 |
| 54 | 1 | 155/4 |
| 55 | 17 | 172/4 |
| 56 | 1 | 173/4 |
| 57 | 7 | 180/5 |
| 58 | 0 | 180/5 |
| 59 | 1 | 181/6 |
| 60 | 0 | 181/6 |
| 61 | 6 | 187/6 |
| 62 | 0 | 187/6 |
| 63 | 0 | 187/6 |
| 64 | 6 | 193/6 |
| 65 | 5 | 198/6 |
| 66 | 1 | 199/7 |
| 67 | 5 | 204/7 |
| 68 | 4 | 208/7 |
| 69 | 5 | 213/8 |
| 70 | 6 | 219/8 |
| 71 | 1 | 220/8 |
| 72 | 1 | 221/8 |
| 73 | 1 | 222/8 |
| 74 | 0 | 222/8 |
| 75 | 0 | 222/8 |
| 76 | 1 | 223/9 |
| 77 | 10 | 233/9 |
| 78 | 4 | 237/9 |
| 79 | 3 | 240/9 |
| 80 | 7 | 247/10 |
Kyle Jamieson: Photographer - David Hollander · CC BY 3.0 nz
Matt Henry: Blue Square Thing · CC BY-SA 4.0
Duanne Olivier: Dave Morton · Public domain
Dane Paterson: Dave Morton · Public domain
Rachin Ravindra: JaumeBG · CC BY-SA 4.0
Tom Latham: Robert Drummond · CC0
Tim Southee: YellowMonkey/Blnguyen · CC BY-SA 4.0
Kane Williamson: Mark Lockett · CC BY-SA 2.0
Tom Blundell: www.davidmolloyphotography.com · CC BY 2.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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