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Photo: NZDF
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South Africa tour of New Zealand · 2023/24 · Men
4 Feb 2024 · Test
Bay Oval, Mount Maunganui · Venue photographRecorded result
New Zealand more likely to win
Model tested on 119 past Tests it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings, plus how often Tests at this ground end in a draw. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Innings 3
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Tom Lathamlbw · Dane Paterson0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Dane Paterson | 3 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 23.08 |
| Devon Conwaycaught · Edward Moore · Neil Brand 0 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Edward Moore · b Neil Brand | 29 | 68 | 0 | 1 | 42.65 |
 Kane Williamsonstumped · Clyde Fortuin · Neil Brand12 fours · 1 sixes | stumped · Clyde Fortuin · b Neil Brand | 109 | 132 | 12 | 1 | 82.58 |
 |
| caught · Neil Brand · b Ruan de Swardt |
| 12 |
| 26 |
| 1 |
| 0 |
| 46.15 |
| Daryl Mitchellnot out 1 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 11* | 17 | 1 | 0 | 64.71 |
|---|
 Tom Blundellnot out1 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 5* | 4 | 1 | 0 | 125.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 6 · wides: 2 · noballs: 2 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Dane Paterson1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 1 | 38 | 1 | 3.80 | 0 | 0 |
| Tshepo Moreki1 maidens · 0 wides · 1 no-balls | 8.0 | 1 | 16 | 0 | 2.00 | 0 | 1 |
| Ruan de Swardt0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.0 | 0 | 48 | 1 | 6.00 | 1 | 0 |
 Duanne Olivier0 maidens · 0 wides · 1 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 19 | 0 | 4.75 | 0 | 1 |
| Neil Brand1 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 13.0 | 1 | 52 | 2 | 4.00 | 1 | 0 |
1-10 (Tom Latham, 4.2) · 2-102 (Devon Conway, 29.2) · 3-143 (Rachin Ravindra, 37.0) · 4-173 (Kane Williamson, 42.0)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | 7/0 |
| 2 | 2 | 9/0 |
| 3 | 0 | 9/0 |
| 4 | 1 | 10/0 |
| 5 | 4 | 14/1 |
| 6 | 4 | 18/1 |
| 7 | 1 | 19/1 |
| 8 | 4 | 23/1 |
| 9 | 2 | 25/1 |
| 10 | 2 | 27/1 |
| 11 | 12 | 39/1 |
| 12 | 0 | 39/1 |
| 13 | 1 | 40/1 |
| 14 | 1 | 41/1 |
| 15 | 7 | 48/1 |
| 16 | 3 | 51/1 |
| 17 | 3 | 54/1 |
| 18 | 3 | 57/1 |
| 19 | 5 | 62/1 |
| 20 | 2 | 64/1 |
| 21 | 3 | 67/1 |
| 22 | 2 | 69/1 |
| 23 | 8 | 77/1 |
| 24 | 1 | 78/1 |
| 25 | 2 | 80/1 |
| 26 | 1 | 81/1 |
| 27 | 6 | 87/1 |
| 28 | 3 | 90/1 |
| 29 | 6 | 96/1 |
| 30 | 6 | 102/2 |
| 31 | 4 | 106/2 |
| 32 | 4 | 110/2 |
| 33 | 10 | 120/2 |
| 34 | 4 | 124/2 |
| 35 | 7 | 131/2 |
| 36 | 6 | 137/2 |
| 37 | 6 | 143/3 |
| 38 | 4 | 147/3 |
| 39 | 6 | 153/3 |
| 40 | 5 | 158/3 |
| 41 | 3 | 161/3 |
| 42 | 12 | 173/4 |
| 43 | 6 | 179/4 |
Kyle Jamieson: Photographer - David Hollander · CC BY 3.0 nz
Matt Henry: Blue Square Thing · CC BY-SA 4.0
Duanne Olivier: Dave Morton · Public domain
Dane Paterson: Dave Morton · Public domain
Rachin Ravindra: JaumeBG · CC BY-SA 4.0
Tom Latham: Robert Drummond · CC0
Tim Southee: YellowMonkey/Blnguyen · CC BY-SA 4.0
Kane Williamson: Mark Lockett · CC BY-SA 2.0
Tom Blundell: www.davidmolloyphotography.com · CC BY 2.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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