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Photo: NZDF
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY 4.0
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South Africa tour of New Zealand · 2023/24 · Men
4 Feb 2024 · Test
Bay Oval, Mount Maunganui · Venue photographRecorded result
New Zealand more likely to win
Model tested on 119 past Tests it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings, plus how often Tests at this ground end in a draw. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
On 4 Feb 2024, New Zealand played South Africa at Bay Oval, Mount Maunganui. Recorded result: New Zealand won by 281 runs.
Calculation date: 9 Nov 2026.