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Photo: Kieran Connellan from Hamilton, New Zealand
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY-SA 2.0
Resized and converted to WebP; display framing may vary.
Historical photograph; current appearance and conditions may differ.
England tour of New Zealand · 2024/25 · Men
14 Dec 2024 · Test
Seddon Park, Hamilton · Venue photographRecorded result
Too close to call
Model tested on 119 past Tests it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings, plus how often Tests at this ground end in a draw. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Tom Lathamcaught · Ollie Pope · Matthew Potts9 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Ollie Pope · b Matthew Potts | 63 | 135 | 9 | 0 | 46.67 |
 Will Youngcaught · Harry Brook · Gus Atkinson10 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Harry Brook · b Gus Atkinson | 42 | 92 | 10 | 0 | 45.65 |
 Kane Williamsonbowled · Matthew Potts9 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Matthew Potts | 44 | 87 | 9 | 0 | 50.57 |
| caught · Ben Duckett · b Brydon Carse |
| 18 |
| 25 |
| 4 |
| 0 |
| 72.00 |
| Daryl Mitchellcaught · Ben Stokes · Gus Atkinson 3 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Ben Stokes · b Gus Atkinson | 14 | 32 | 3 | 0 | 43.75 |
|---|
 Tom Blundellcaught · Jacob Bethell · Brydon Carse4 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Jacob Bethell · b Brydon Carse | 21 | 29 | 4 | 0 | 72.41 |
|---|
| Glenn Phillipscaught · Zak Crawley · Matthew Potts 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Zak Crawley · b Matthew Potts | 5 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 50.00 |
|---|
| Mitchell Santnerbowled · Matthew Potts 10 fours · 2 sixes | bowled · b Matthew Potts | 76 | 117 | 10 | 2 | 64.96 |
|---|
 Matt Henrycaught · Harry Brook · Ben Stokes0 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Harry Brook · b Ben Stokes | 8 | 20 | 0 | 1 | 40.00 |
|---|
 Tim Southeecaught · Brydon Carse · Gus Atkinson1 fours · 3 sixes | caught · Brydon Carse · b Gus Atkinson | 23 | 10 | 1 | 3 | 230.00 |
|---|
 William O’Rourkenot out1 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 5* | 30 | 1 | 0 | 16.67 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 12 · legbyes: 10 · wides: 2 · noballs: 4 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Matthew Potts7 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 28.1 | 7 | 90 | 4 | 3.20 | 0 | 0 |
| Gus Atkinson7 maidens · 1 wides · 2 no-balls | 26.0 | 7 | 66 | 3 | 2.54 | 1 | 2 |
 Brydon Carse2 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 19.0 | 2 | 78 | 2 | 4.11 | 1 | 0 |
 Ben Stokes6 maidens · 0 wides · 2 no-balls | 24.0 | 6 | 91 | 1 | 3.79 | 0 | 2 |
1-105 (Will Young, 30.3) · 2-142 (Tom Latham, 44.1) · 3-172 (Rachin Ravindra, 52.3) · 4-185 (Kane Williamson, 59.0) · 5-206 (Daryl Mitchell, 63.3) · 6-212 (Glenn Phillips, 66.2) · 7-231 (Tom Blundell, 69.0) · 8-272 (Matt Henry, 77.5) · 9-303 (Tim Southee, 80.4) · 10-347 (Mitchell Santner, 97.1)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | 8/0 |
| 2 | 1 | 9/0 |
| 3 | 3 | 12/0 |
| 4 | 8 | 20/0 |
| 5 | 4 | 24/0 |
| 6 | 1 | 25/0 |
| 7 | 1 | 26/0 |
| 8 | 2 | 28/0 |
| 9 | 8 | 36/0 |
| 10 | 1 | 37/0 |
| 11 | 2 | 39/0 |
| 12 | 4 | 43/0 |
| 13 | 3 | 46/0 |
| 14 | 0 | 46/0 |
| 15 | 0 | 46/0 |
| 16 | 8 | 54/0 |
| 17 | 5 | 59/0 |
| 18 | 1 | 60/0 |
| 19 | 4 | 64/0 |
| 20 | 4 | 68/0 |
| 21 | 8 | 76/0 |
| 22 | 8 | 84/0 |
| 23 | 0 | 84/0 |
| 24 | 1 | 85/0 |
| 25 | 0 | 85/0 |
| 26 | 5 | 90/0 |
| 27 | 1 | 91/0 |
| 28 | 2 | 93/0 |
| 29 | 0 | 93/0 |
| 30 | 12 | 105/0 |
| 31 | 0 | 105/1 |
| 32 | 5 | 110/1 |
| 33 | 2 | 112/1 |
| 34 | 4 | 116/1 |
| 35 | 5 | 121/1 |
| 36 | 5 | 126/1 |
| 37 | 1 | 127/1 |
| 38 | 4 | 131/1 |
| 39 | 4 | 135/1 |
| 40 | 3 | 138/1 |
| 41 | 0 | 138/1 |
| 42 | 1 | 139/1 |
| 43 | 0 | 139/1 |
| 44 | 3 | 142/1 |
| 45 | 8 | 150/2 |
| 46 | 2 | 152/2 |
| 47 | 8 | 160/2 |
| 48 | 4 | 164/2 |
| 49 | 0 | 164/2 |
| 50 | 1 | 165/2 |
| 51 | 4 | 169/2 |
| 52 | 2 | 171/2 |
| 53 | 1 | 172/3 |
| 54 | 1 | 173/3 |
| 55 | 4 | 177/3 |
| 56 | 0 | 177/3 |
| 57 | 4 | 181/3 |
| 58 | 0 | 181/3 |
| 59 | 4 | 185/4 |
| 60 | 8 | 193/4 |
| 61 | 0 | 193/4 |
| 62 | 5 | 198/4 |
| 63 | 6 | 204/4 |
| 64 | 6 | 210/5 |
| 65 | 0 | 210/5 |
| 66 | 2 | 212/5 |
| 67 | 0 | 212/6 |
| 68 | 13 | 225/6 |
| 69 | 6 | 231/7 |
| 70 | 1 | 232/7 |
| 71 | 4 | 236/7 |
| 72 | 0 | 236/7 |
| 73 | 3 | 239/7 |
| 74 | 0 | 239/7 |
| 75 | 6 | 245/7 |
| 76 | 9 | 254/7 |
| 77 | 7 | 261/7 |
| 78 | 11 | 272/8 |
| 79 | 4 | 276/8 |
| 80 | 17 | 293/8 |
| 81 | 10 | 303/9 |
| 82 | 12 | 315/9 |
| 83 | 0 | 315/9 |
| 84 | 1 | 316/9 |
| 85 | 1 | 317/9 |
| 86 | 1 | 318/9 |
| 87 | 3 | 321/9 |
| 88 | 5 | 326/9 |
| 89 | 1 | 327/9 |
| 90 | 4 | 331/9 |
| 91 | 0 | 331/9 |
| 92 | 1 | 332/9 |
| 93 | 1 | 333/9 |
| 94 | 3 | 336/9 |
| 95 | 5 | 341/9 |
| 96 | 1 | 342/9 |
| 97 | 5 | 347/9 |
| 98 | 0 | 347/10 |
Harry Brook: Dave Morton · Public domain
Brydon Carse: Dave Morton · Public domain
Ollie Pope: Kroome111 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Matthew Potts: Dave Morton · Public domain
Matt Henry: Blue Square Thing · CC BY-SA 4.0
Ben Duckett: Charltonkyle · CC BY-SA 4.0
Joe Root: Dave Morton · Public domain
William O’Rourke: Dave Morton · Public domain
Zak Crawley: Dave Morton · Public domain
Will Young: Dave Morton · Public domain
Rachin Ravindra: JaumeBG · CC BY-SA 4.0
Tom Latham: Robert Drummond · CC0
Tim Southee: YellowMonkey/Blnguyen · CC BY-SA 4.0
Kane Williamson: Mark Lockett · CC BY-SA 2.0
Ben Stokes: NAPARAZZI · CC BY-SA 2.0
Tom Blundell: www.davidmolloyphotography.com · CC BY 2.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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