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Photo: Kieran Connellan from Hamilton, New Zealand
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY-SA 2.0
Resized and converted to WebP; display framing may vary.
Historical photograph; current appearance and conditions may differ.
England tour of New Zealand · 2024/25 · Men
14 Dec 2024 · Test
Seddon Park, Hamilton · Venue photographRecorded result
Too close to call
Model tested on 119 past Tests it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings, plus how often Tests at this ground end in a draw. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Innings 4
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Zak Crawleylbw · Matt Henry1 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Matt Henry | 5 | 17 | 1 | 0 | 29.41 |
 Ben Duckettbowled · Tim Southee1 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Tim Southee | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 100.00 |
| Jacob Bethellcaught · Glenn Phillips · Tim Southee 13 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Glenn Phillips · b Tim Southee | 76 | 96 | 13 | 1 | 79.17 |
 Joe Root |
| lbw · b Mitchell Santner |
| 54 |
| 64 |
| 10 |
| 0 |
| 84.38 |
 Harry Brookcaught · Daryl Mitchell · William O’Rourke0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Daryl Mitchell · b William O’Rourke | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 16.67 |
|---|
 Ollie Popebowled · Matt Henry2 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Matt Henry | 17 | 36 | 2 | 0 | 47.22 |
|---|
| Gus Atkinsoncaught · Glenn Phillips · Mitchell Santner 7 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Glenn Phillips · b Mitchell Santner | 43 | 41 | 7 | 1 | 104.88 |
|---|
 Brydon Carsestumped · Tom Blundell · Mitchell Santner1 fours · 1 sixes | stumped · Tom Blundell · b Mitchell Santner | 11 | 12 | 1 | 1 | 91.67 |
|---|
 Matthew Pottscaught · Tim Southee · Mitchell Santner0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Tim Southee · b Mitchell Santner | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Shoaib Bashirnot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 2* | 6 | 0 | 0 | 33.33 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 16 · legbyes: 0 · wides: 5 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Matt Henry1 maidens · 5 wides · 0 no-balls | 13.0 | 1 | 62 | 2 | 4.77 | 5 | 0 |
 Tim Southee1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.0 | 1 | 34 | 2 | 4.25 | 0 | 0 |
 William O’Rourke5 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 12.0 | 5 | 37 | 1 | 3.08 | 0 | 0 |
| Mitchell Santner1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 14.2 | 1 | 85 | 4 | 5.93 | 0 | 0 |
1-8 (Ben Duckett, 1.4) · 2-18 (Zak Crawley, 5.0) · 3-122 (Joe Root, 25.5) · 4-133 (Harry Brook, 28.3) · 5-166 (Jacob Bethell, 34.1) · 6-215 (Ollie Pope, 42.4) · 7-231 (Gus Atkinson, 45.3) · 8-231 (Matthew Potts, 45.5) · 9-234 (Brydon Carse, 47.2)
Absent hurt: BA Stokes
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | 4/0 |
| 2 | 4 | 8/1 |
| 3 | 9 | 17/1 |
| 4 | 0 | 17/1 |
| 5 | 1 | 18/2 |
| 6 | 0 | 18/2 |
| 7 | 3 | 21/2 |
| 8 | 4 | 25/2 |
| 9 | 8 | 33/2 |
| 10 | 8 | 41/2 |
| 11 | 4 | 45/2 |
| 12 | 4 | 49/2 |
| 13 | 5 | 54/2 |
| 14 | 9 | 63/2 |
| 15 | 13 | 76/2 |
| 16 | 3 | 79/2 |
| 17 | 6 | 85/2 |
| 18 | 4 | 89/2 |
| 19 | 8 | 97/2 |
| 20 | 1 | 98/2 |
| 21 | 2 | 100/2 |
| 22 | 6 | 106/2 |
| 23 | 0 | 106/2 |
| 24 | 11 | 117/2 |
| 25 | 1 | 118/2 |
| 26 | 4 | 122/3 |
| 27 | 0 | 122/3 |
| 28 | 11 | 133/3 |
| 29 | 0 | 133/4 |
| 30 | 7 | 140/4 |
| 31 | 0 | 140/4 |
| 32 | 4 | 144/4 |
| 33 | 18 | 162/4 |
| 34 | 4 | 166/4 |
| 35 | 2 | 168/5 |
| 36 | 13 | 181/5 |
| 37 | 6 | 187/5 |
| 38 | 0 | 187/5 |
| 39 | 6 | 193/5 |
| 40 | 7 | 200/5 |
| 41 | 1 | 201/5 |
| 42 | 14 | 215/5 |
| 43 | 0 | 215/6 |
| 44 | 7 | 222/6 |
| 45 | 5 | 227/6 |
| 46 | 4 | 231/8 |
| 47 | 3 | 234/8 |
| 48 | 0 | 234/9 |
Harry Brook: Dave Morton · Public domain
Brydon Carse: Dave Morton · Public domain
Ollie Pope: Kroome111 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Matthew Potts: Dave Morton · Public domain
Matt Henry: Blue Square Thing · CC BY-SA 4.0
Ben Duckett: Charltonkyle · CC BY-SA 4.0
Joe Root: Dave Morton · Public domain
William O’Rourke: Dave Morton · Public domain
Zak Crawley: Dave Morton · Public domain
Will Young: Dave Morton · Public domain
Rachin Ravindra: JaumeBG · CC BY-SA 4.0
Tom Latham: Robert Drummond · CC0
Tim Southee: YellowMonkey/Blnguyen · CC BY-SA 4.0
Kane Williamson: Mark Lockett · CC BY-SA 2.0
Ben Stokes: NAPARAZZI · CC BY-SA 2.0
Tom Blundell: www.davidmolloyphotography.com · CC BY 2.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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