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Photo: Kieran Connellan from Hamilton, New Zealand
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY-SA 2.0
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Historical photograph; current appearance and conditions may differ.
England tour of New Zealand · 2024/25 · Men
14 Dec 2024 · Test
Seddon Park, Hamilton · Venue photographRecorded result
Too close to call
Model tested on 119 past Tests it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings, plus how often Tests at this ground end in a draw. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Innings 3
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Tom Lathambowled · Gus Atkinson3 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Gus Atkinson | 19 | 31 | 3 | 0 | 61.29 |
 Will Youngcaught · Jacob Bethell · Ben Stokes9 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Jacob Bethell · b Ben Stokes | 60 | 85 | 9 | 0 | 70.59 |
 Kane Williamsoncaught · Rehan Ahmed · Shoaib Bashir20 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Rehan Ahmed · b Shoaib Bashir | 156 | 204 | 20 | 1 | 76.47 |
| caught · Ollie Pope · b Ben Stokes |
| 0 |
| 8 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 0.00 |
 Rachin Ravindracaught · Brydon Carse · Matthew Potts4 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Brydon Carse · b Matthew Potts | 44 | 90 | 4 | 1 | 48.89 |
|---|
| Daryl Mitchellcaught · Matthew Potts · Jacob Bethell 7 fours · 2 sixes | caught · Matthew Potts · b Jacob Bethell | 60 | 84 | 7 | 2 | 71.43 |
|---|
 Tom Blundellnot out2 fours · 3 sixes | not out | 44* | 55 | 2 | 3 | 80.00 |
|---|
| Glenn Phillipscaught · Brydon Carse · Shoaib Bashir 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Brydon Carse · b Shoaib Bashir | 3 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 33.33 |
|---|
| Mitchell Santnercaught · Shoaib Bashir · Joe Root 3 fours · 5 sixes | caught · Shoaib Bashir · b Joe Root | 49 | 38 | 3 | 5 | 128.95 |
|---|
 Tim Southeecaught · Zak Crawley · Jacob Bethell0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Zak Crawley · b Jacob Bethell | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 40.00 |
|---|
 Matt Henrybowled · Jacob Bethell0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Jacob Bethell | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 12 · legbyes: 3 · wides: 1 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Matthew Potts4 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 16.0 | 4 | 64 | 1 | 4.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Gus Atkinson4 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.0 | 4 | 16 | 1 | 1.78 | 0 | 0 |
 Brydon Carse2 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 11.0 | 2 | 34 | 0 | 3.09 | 1 | 0 |
 Ben Stokes1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 12.2 | 1 | 52 | 2 | 4.22 | 0 | 0 |
| Shoaib Bashir1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 36.0 | 1 | 170 | 2 | 4.72 | 0 | 0 |
| Jacob Bethell0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 14.2 | 0 | 72 | 3 | 5.02 | 0 | 0 |
 Harry Brook0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 13 | 0 | 6.50 | 0 | 0 |
 Joe Root0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 17 | 1 | 17.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-35 (Tom Latham, 9.4) · 2-124 (Will Young, 27.1) · 3-128 (William O’Rourke, 29.3) · 4-235 (Rachin Ravindra, 59.3) · 5-327 (Kane Williamson, 78.3) · 6-375 (Daryl Mitchell, 87.5) · 7-380 (Glenn Phillips, 90.2) · 8-443 (Mitchell Santner, 99.5) · 9-453 (Tim Southee, 101.3) · 10-453 (Matt Henry, 101.4)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9 | 9/0 |
| 2 | 4 | 13/0 |
| 3 | 5 | 18/0 |
| 4 | 0 | 18/0 |
| 5 | 0 | 18/0 |
| 6 | 0 | 18/0 |
| 7 | 11 | 29/0 |
| 8 | 2 | 31/0 |
| 9 | 0 | 31/0 |
| 10 | 4 | 35/1 |
| 11 | 9 | 44/1 |
| 12 | 1 | 45/1 |
| 13 | 2 | 47/1 |
| 14 | 0 | 47/1 |
| 15 | 8 | 55/1 |
| 16 | 4 | 59/1 |
| 17 | 7 | 66/1 |
| 18 | 4 | 70/1 |
| 19 | 3 | 73/1 |
| 20 | 4 | 77/1 |
| 21 | 8 | 85/1 |
| 22 | 8 | 93/1 |
| 23 | 7 | 100/1 |
| 24 | 2 | 102/1 |
| 25 | 13 | 115/1 |
| 26 | 7 | 122/1 |
| 27 | 2 | 124/1 |
| 28 | 0 | 124/2 |
| 29 | 4 | 128/2 |
| 30 | 5 | 133/3 |
| 31 | 0 | 133/3 |
| 32 | 3 | 136/3 |
| 33 | 4 | 140/3 |
| 34 | 5 | 145/3 |
| 35 | 0 | 145/3 |
| 36 | 1 | 146/3 |
| 37 | 4 | 150/3 |
| 38 | 0 | 150/3 |
| 39 | 1 | 151/3 |
| 40 | 0 | 151/3 |
| 41 | 4 | 155/3 |
| 42 | 4 | 159/3 |
| 43 | 2 | 161/3 |
| 44 | 1 | 162/3 |
| 45 | 1 | 163/3 |
| 46 | 0 | 163/3 |
| 47 | 5 | 168/3 |
| 48 | 4 | 172/3 |
| 49 | 4 | 176/3 |
| 50 | 4 | 180/3 |
| 51 | 6 | 186/3 |
| 52 | 1 | 187/3 |
| 53 | 8 | 195/3 |
| 54 | 2 | 197/3 |
| 55 | 4 | 201/3 |
| 56 | 9 | 210/3 |
| 57 | 10 | 220/3 |
| 58 | 12 | 232/3 |
| 59 | 3 | 235/3 |
| 60 | 4 | 239/4 |
| 61 | 2 | 241/4 |
| 62 | 4 | 245/4 |
| 63 | 3 | 248/4 |
| 64 | 2 | 250/4 |
| 65 | 8 | 258/4 |
| 66 | 1 | 259/4 |
| 67 | 7 | 266/4 |
| 68 | 8 | 274/4 |
| 69 | 2 | 276/4 |
| 70 | 4 | 280/4 |
| 71 | 3 | 283/4 |
| 72 | 2 | 285/4 |
| 73 | 3 | 288/4 |
| 74 | 6 | 294/4 |
| 75 | 14 | 308/4 |
| 76 | 10 | 318/4 |
| 77 | 4 | 322/4 |
| 78 | 3 | 325/4 |
| 79 | 2 | 327/5 |
| 80 | 2 | 329/5 |
| 81 | 1 | 330/5 |
| 82 | 3 | 333/5 |
| 83 | 12 | 345/5 |
| 84 | 7 | 352/5 |
| 85 | 9 | 361/5 |
| 86 | 3 | 364/5 |
| 87 | 4 | 368/5 |
| 88 | 8 | 376/6 |
| 89 | 2 | 378/6 |
| 90 | 2 | 380/6 |
| 91 | 7 | 387/7 |
| 92 | 6 | 393/7 |
| 93 | 5 | 398/7 |
| 94 | 7 | 405/7 |
| 95 | 3 | 408/7 |
| 96 | 0 | 408/7 |
| 97 | 3 | 411/7 |
| 98 | 11 | 422/7 |
| 99 | 1 | 423/7 |
| 100 | 21 | 444/8 |
| 101 | 8 | 452/8 |
| 102 | 1 | 453/10 |
Harry Brook: Dave Morton · Public domain
Brydon Carse: Dave Morton · Public domain
Ollie Pope: Kroome111 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Matthew Potts: Dave Morton · Public domain
Matt Henry: Blue Square Thing · CC BY-SA 4.0
Ben Duckett: Charltonkyle · CC BY-SA 4.0
Joe Root: Dave Morton · Public domain
William O’Rourke: Dave Morton · Public domain
Zak Crawley: Dave Morton · Public domain
Will Young: Dave Morton · Public domain
Rachin Ravindra: JaumeBG · CC BY-SA 4.0
Tom Latham: Robert Drummond · CC0
Tim Southee: YellowMonkey/Blnguyen · CC BY-SA 4.0
Kane Williamson: Mark Lockett · CC BY-SA 2.0
Ben Stokes: NAPARAZZI · CC BY-SA 2.0
Tom Blundell: www.davidmolloyphotography.com · CC BY 2.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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