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Sri Lanka tour of South Africa · 2024/25 · Men
5 Dec 2024 · Test
St George's Park, Gqeberha · Venue photographRecorded result
South Africa more likely to win
Model tested on 119 past Tests it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings, plus how often Tests at this ground end in a draw. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pathum Nissankabowled · Keshav Maharaj 11 fours · 1 sixes | bowled · b Keshav Maharaj | 89 | 157 | 11 | 1 | 56.69 |
 Dimuth Karunaratnecaught · Kyle Verreynne · Kagiso Rabada4 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Kyle Verreynne · b Kagiso Rabada | 20 | 43 | 4 | 0 | 46.51 |
 Dinesh Chandimalcaught · Kyle Verreynne · Dane Paterson5 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Kyle Verreynne · b Dane Paterson | 44 | 97 | 5 | 0 | 45.36 |
 |
| caught · Kyle Verreynne · b Marco Jansen |
| 44 |
| 90 |
| 6 |
| 0 |
| 48.89 |
| Kamindu Mendiscaught · Aiden Markram · Marco Jansen 4 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Aiden Markram · b Marco Jansen | 48 | 92 | 4 | 0 | 52.17 |
|---|
| Dhananjaya de Silvacaught · Aiden Markram · Dane Paterson 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Aiden Markram · b Dane Paterson | 14 | 27 | 1 | 0 | 51.85 |
|---|
| Kusal Mendisbowled · Dane Paterson 3 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Dane Paterson | 16 | 28 | 3 | 0 | 57.14 |
|---|
| Prabath Jayasuriyastumped · Kyle Verreynne · Keshav Maharaj 4 fours · 0 sixes | stumped · Kyle Verreynne · b Keshav Maharaj | 24 | 32 | 4 | 0 | 75.00 |
|---|
| Lahiru Kumaracaught · Marco Jansen · Dane Paterson 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Marco Jansen · b Dane Paterson | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
 Vishwa Fernandocaught · Kyle Verreynne · Dane Paterson0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Kyle Verreynne · b Dane Paterson | 2 | 31 | 0 | 0 | 6.45 |
|---|
| Asitha Fernandonot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 0* | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 13 · legbyes: 8 · wides: 1 · noballs: 5 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Kagiso Rabada7 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 24.0 | 7 | 56 | 1 | 2.33 | 0 | 0 |
 Marco Jansen4 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 25.0 | 4 | 100 | 2 | 4.00 | 0 | 0 |
 Dane Paterson4 maidens · 0 wides · 5 no-balls | 22.0 | 4 | 71 | 5 | 3.23 | 0 | 5 |
 Keshav Maharaj5 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 24.2 | 5 | 65 | 2 | 2.67 | 1 | 0 |
 Aiden Markram0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 15 | 0 | 3.75 | 0 | 0 |
1-41 (Dimuth Karunaratne, 15.4) · 2-150 (Dinesh Chandimal, 44.2) · 3-199 (Pathum Nissanka, 55.2) · 4-261 (Angelo Mathews, 76.2) · 5-268 (Kamindu Mendis, 80.3) · 6-297 (Dhananjaya de Silva, 88.1) · 7-298 (Kusal Mendis, 88.3) · 8-298 (Lahiru Kumara, 88.5) · 9-327 (Vishwa Fernando, 98.4) · 10-328 (Prabath Jayasuriya, 99.2)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | 0/0 |
| 2 | 8 | 8/0 |
| 3 | 2 | 10/0 |
| 4 | 4 | 14/0 |
| 5 | 0 | 14/0 |
| 6 | 5 | 19/0 |
| 7 | 0 | 19/0 |
| 8 | 6 | 25/0 |
| 9 | 0 | 25/0 |
| 10 | 0 | 25/0 |
| 11 | 1 | 26/0 |
| 12 | 10 | 36/0 |
| 13 | 0 | 36/0 |
| 14 | 4 | 40/0 |
| 15 | 1 | 41/0 |
| 16 | 5 | 46/1 |
| 17 | 0 | 46/1 |
| 18 | 4 | 50/1 |
| 19 | 2 | 52/1 |
| 20 | 9 | 61/1 |
| 21 | 0 | 61/1 |
| 22 | 0 | 61/1 |
| 23 | 1 | 62/1 |
| 24 | 5 | 67/1 |
| 25 | 6 | 73/1 |
| 26 | 10 | 83/1 |
| 27 | 3 | 86/1 |
| 28 | 7 | 93/1 |
| 29 | 2 | 95/1 |
| 30 | 4 | 99/1 |
| 31 | 1 | 100/1 |
| 32 | 1 | 101/1 |
| 33 | 2 | 103/1 |
| 34 | 9 | 112/1 |
| 35 | 2 | 114/1 |
| 36 | 6 | 120/1 |
| 37 | 4 | 124/1 |
| 38 | 3 | 127/1 |
| 39 | 6 | 133/1 |
| 40 | 2 | 135/1 |
| 41 | 4 | 139/1 |
| 42 | 6 | 145/1 |
| 43 | 2 | 147/1 |
| 44 | 2 | 149/1 |
| 45 | 2 | 151/2 |
| 46 | 2 | 153/2 |
| 47 | 6 | 159/2 |
| 48 | 1 | 160/2 |
| 49 | 5 | 165/2 |
| 50 | 1 | 166/2 |
| 51 | 9 | 175/2 |
| 52 | 2 | 177/2 |
| 53 | 4 | 181/2 |
| 54 | 6 | 187/2 |
| 55 | 12 | 199/2 |
| 56 | 3 | 202/3 |
| 57 | 2 | 204/3 |
| 58 | 0 | 204/3 |
| 59 | 8 | 212/3 |
| 60 | 2 | 214/3 |
| 61 | 3 | 217/3 |
| 62 | 7 | 224/3 |
| 63 | 2 | 226/3 |
| 64 | 4 | 230/3 |
| 65 | 4 | 234/3 |
| 66 | 2 | 236/3 |
| 67 | 6 | 242/3 |
| 68 | 0 | 242/3 |
| 69 | 0 | 242/3 |
| 70 | 6 | 248/3 |
| 71 | 3 | 251/3 |
| 72 | 0 | 251/3 |
| 73 | 4 | 255/3 |
| 74 | 3 | 258/3 |
| 75 | 0 | 258/3 |
| 76 | 3 | 261/3 |
| 77 | 0 | 261/4 |
| 78 | 0 | 261/4 |
| 79 | 2 | 263/4 |
| 80 | 3 | 266/4 |
| 81 | 6 | 272/5 |
| 82 | 1 | 273/5 |
| 83 | 5 | 278/5 |
| 84 | 3 | 281/5 |
| 85 | 5 | 286/5 |
| 86 | 2 | 288/5 |
| 87 | 4 | 292/5 |
| 88 | 5 | 297/5 |
| 89 | 1 | 298/8 |
| 90 | 1 | 299/8 |
| 91 | 9 | 308/8 |
| 92 | 2 | 310/8 |
| 93 | 1 | 311/8 |
| 94 | 7 | 318/8 |
| 95 | 4 | 322/8 |
| 96 | 0 | 322/8 |
| 97 | 1 | 323/8 |
| 98 | 3 | 326/8 |
| 99 | 1 | 327/9 |
| 100 | 1 | 328/10 |
Ryan Rickelton: Dave Morton · Public domain
Angelo Mathews: paddynapper · CC BY-SA 2.0
Temba Bavuma: Michael Sherman · CC BY 3.0
Marco Jansen: Storm machine · CC BY-SA 4.0
Aiden Markram: Marcel Sigg · CC0
Vishwa Fernando: Dave Morton · Public domain
Keshav Maharaj: Dave Morton · Public domain
Dane Paterson: Dave Morton · Public domain
Dinesh Chandimal: Amal316 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Kagiso Rabada: Blue Square Thing · CC BY-SA 4.0
Dimuth Karunaratne: Dave Morton · Public domain
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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