South AfricaversusSri Lanka

5 Dec 2024 · Test

St George's Park, Gqeberha · Venue photograph

Recorded result

South Africa won by 109 runs

South Africa103.4 overs358/10 Sri Lanka99.2 overs328/10 South Africa86.0 overs317/10 Sri Lanka69.1 overs238/10 St George's Park, Gqeberha ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

South Africa more likely to win

68%South Africa12%Draw20%Sri Lanka

Why

South Africa are playing at home in South Africa
On results in Tests so far, South Africa rate stronger than Sri Lanka (1,605 vs 1,535 on our results rating)
In the last 10 Tests between these sides, South Africa won 6 and Sri Lanka won 4

Model tested on 119 past Tests it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings, plus how often Tests at this ground end in a draw. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.