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Sri Lanka tour of South Africa · 2024/25 · Men
5 Dec 2024 · Test
St George's Park, Gqeberha · Venue photographRecorded result
South Africa more likely to win
Model tested on 119 past Tests it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings, plus how often Tests at this ground end in a draw. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Innings 3
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony de Zorzibowled · Prabath Jayasuriya 2 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Prabath Jayasuriya | 19 | 38 | 2 | 0 | 50.00 |
 Aiden Markramcaught · Kusal Mendis · Vishwa Fernando5 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Kusal Mendis · b Vishwa Fernando | 55 | 75 | 5 | 0 | 73.33 |
 Ryan Rickeltonlbw · Prabath Jayasuriya3 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Prabath Jayasuriya | 24 | 45 | 3 | 0 | 53.33 |
| Tristan Stubbsrun out · Dimuth Karunaratne, Lahiru Kumara · Lahiru Kumara2 fours · 0 sixes |
| run out · Dimuth Karunaratne, Lahiru Kumara |
| 47 |
| 112 |
| 2 |
| 0 |
| 41.96 |
 Temba Bavumabowled · Prabath Jayasuriya3 fours · 2 sixes | bowled · b Prabath Jayasuriya | 66 | 116 | 3 | 2 | 56.90 |
|---|
| David Bedinghamcaught · Dhananjaya de Silva · Prabath Jayasuriya 3 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Dhananjaya de Silva · b Prabath Jayasuriya | 35 | 55 | 3 | 0 | 63.64 |
|---|
| Kyle Verreynnecaught · Kusal Mendis · Vishwa Fernando 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Kusal Mendis · b Vishwa Fernando | 9 | 27 | 1 | 0 | 33.33 |
|---|
 Marco Jansencaught · Asitha Fernando · Prabath Jayasuriya1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Asitha Fernando · b Prabath Jayasuriya | 8 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 72.73 |
|---|
 Keshav Maharajnot out1 fours · 1 sixes | not out | 14* | 22 | 1 | 1 | 63.64 |
|---|
 Kagiso Rabadacaught · Kusal Mendis · Lahiru Kumara2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Kusal Mendis · b Lahiru Kumara | 8 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
 Dane Patersonbowled · Asitha Fernando2 fours · 1 sixes | bowled · b Asitha Fernando | 14 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 175.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 1 · legbyes: 7 · wides: 9 · noballs: 1 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Vishwa Fernando4 maidens · 7 wides · 0 no-balls | 19.0 | 4 | 47 | 2 | 2.47 | 7 | 0 |
| Asitha Fernando2 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 14.0 | 2 | 52 | 1 | 3.71 | 2 | 0 |
| Lahiru Kumara0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 16.0 | 0 | 71 | 1 | 4.44 | 0 | 0 |
| Prabath Jayasuriya2 maidens · 0 wides · 1 no-balls | 34.0 | 2 | 129 | 5 | 3.79 | 0 | 1 |
| Dhananjaya de Silva0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 3.33 | 0 | 0 |
1-55 (Tony de Zorzi, 13.4) · 2-96 (Aiden Markram, 24.3) · 3-109 (Ryan Rickelton, 29.1) · 4-213 (Tristan Stubbs, 60.5) · 5-254 (Temba Bavuma, 71.4) · 6-268 (David Bedingham, 77.2) · 7-273 (Kyle Verreynne, 79.0) · 8-279 (Marco Jansen, 80.0) · 9-290 (Kagiso Rabada, 82.4) · 10-317 (Dane Paterson, 86.0)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | 4/0 |
| 2 | 8 | 12/0 |
| 3 | 2 | 14/0 |
| 4 | 5 | 19/0 |
| 5 | 7 | 26/0 |
| 6 | 3 | 29/0 |
| 7 | 2 | 31/0 |
| 8 | 2 | 33/0 |
| 9 | 3 | 36/0 |
| 10 | 2 | 38/0 |
| 11 | 9 | 47/0 |
| 12 | 2 | 49/0 |
| 13 | 5 | 54/0 |
| 14 | 1 | 55/1 |
| 15 | 2 | 57/1 |
| 16 | 7 | 64/1 |
| 17 | 8 | 72/1 |
| 18 | 1 | 73/1 |
| 19 | 3 | 76/1 |
| 20 | 2 | 78/1 |
| 21 | 0 | 78/1 |
| 22 | 5 | 83/1 |
| 23 | 10 | 93/1 |
| 24 | 3 | 96/1 |
| 25 | 0 | 96/2 |
| 26 | 7 | 103/2 |
| 27 | 2 | 105/2 |
| 28 | 4 | 109/2 |
| 29 | 0 | 109/2 |
| 30 | 0 | 109/3 |
| 31 | 2 | 111/3 |
| 32 | 2 | 113/3 |
| 33 | 0 | 113/3 |
| 34 | 2 | 115/3 |
| 35 | 3 | 118/3 |
| 36 | 2 | 120/3 |
| 37 | 2 | 122/3 |
| 38 | 4 | 126/3 |
| 39 | 8 | 134/3 |
| 40 | 6 | 140/3 |
| 41 | 5 | 145/3 |
| 42 | 5 | 150/3 |
| 43 | 1 | 151/3 |
| 44 | 7 | 158/3 |
| 45 | 1 | 159/3 |
| 46 | 3 | 162/3 |
| 47 | 0 | 162/3 |
| 48 | 12 | 174/3 |
| 49 | 3 | 177/3 |
| 50 | 4 | 181/3 |
| 51 | 2 | 183/3 |
| 52 | 2 | 185/3 |
| 53 | 4 | 189/3 |
| 54 | 1 | 190/3 |
| 55 | 1 | 191/3 |
| 56 | 4 | 195/3 |
| 57 | 4 | 199/3 |
| 58 | 4 | 203/3 |
| 59 | 2 | 205/3 |
| 60 | 4 | 209/3 |
| 61 | 4 | 213/4 |
| 62 | 1 | 214/4 |
| 63 | 4 | 218/4 |
| 64 | 2 | 220/4 |
| 65 | 0 | 220/4 |
| 66 | 2 | 222/4 |
| 67 | 4 | 226/4 |
| 68 | 6 | 232/4 |
| 69 | 1 | 233/4 |
| 70 | 5 | 238/4 |
| 71 | 13 | 251/4 |
| 72 | 4 | 255/5 |
| 73 | 4 | 259/5 |
| 74 | 1 | 260/5 |
| 75 | 3 | 263/5 |
| 76 | 3 | 266/5 |
| 77 | 1 | 267/5 |
| 78 | 4 | 271/6 |
| 79 | 2 | 273/7 |
| 80 | 6 | 279/8 |
| 81 | 3 | 282/8 |
| 82 | 0 | 282/8 |
| 83 | 8 | 290/9 |
| 84 | 13 | 303/9 |
| 85 | 9 | 312/9 |
| 86 | 5 | 317/10 |
Ryan Rickelton: Dave Morton · Public domain
Angelo Mathews: paddynapper · CC BY-SA 2.0
Temba Bavuma: Michael Sherman · CC BY 3.0
Marco Jansen: Storm machine · CC BY-SA 4.0
Aiden Markram: Marcel Sigg · CC0
Vishwa Fernando: Dave Morton · Public domain
Keshav Maharaj: Dave Morton · Public domain
Dane Paterson: Dave Morton · Public domain
Dinesh Chandimal: Amal316 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Kagiso Rabada: Blue Square Thing · CC BY-SA 4.0
Dimuth Karunaratne: Dave Morton · Public domain
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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