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Sri Lanka tour of South Africa · 2024/25 · Men
5 Dec 2024 · Test
St George's Park, Gqeberha · Venue photographRecorded result
South Africa more likely to win
Model tested on 119 past Tests it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings, plus how often Tests at this ground end in a draw. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Innings 4
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pathum Nissankacaught · Kyle Verreynne · Dane Paterson 4 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Kyle Verreynne · b Dane Paterson | 18 | 44 | 4 | 0 | 40.91 |
 Dimuth Karunaratnelbw · Kagiso Rabada0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Kagiso Rabada | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 33.33 |
 Dinesh Chandimallbw · Dane Paterson5 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Dane Paterson | 29 | 57 | 5 | 0 | 50.88 |
 |
| bowled · b Keshav Maharaj |
| 32 |
| 59 |
| 4 |
| 1 |
| 54.24 |
| Kamindu Mendiscaught · Kyle Verreynne · Keshav Maharaj 4 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Kyle Verreynne · b Keshav Maharaj | 35 | 35 | 4 | 1 | 100.00 |
|---|
| Dhananjaya de Silvacaught · Kyle Verreynne · Kagiso Rabada 7 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Kyle Verreynne · b Kagiso Rabada | 50 | 92 | 7 | 0 | 54.35 |
|---|
| Kusal Mendiscaught · Aiden Markram · Keshav Maharaj 3 fours · 2 sixes | caught · Aiden Markram · b Keshav Maharaj | 46 | 76 | 3 | 2 | 60.53 |
|---|
| Prabath Jayasuriyacaught · Temba Bavuma · Keshav Maharaj 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Temba Bavuma · b Keshav Maharaj | 9 | 19 | 1 | 0 | 47.37 |
|---|
 Vishwa Fernandocaught · Marco Jansen · Keshav Maharaj0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Marco Jansen · b Keshav Maharaj | 5 | 24 | 0 | 0 | 20.83 |
|---|
| Lahiru Kumaracaught · Ryan Rickelton · Marco Jansen 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Ryan Rickelton · b Marco Jansen | 1 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 9.09 |
|---|
| Asitha Fernandonot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 0* | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 5 · legbyes: 1 · wides: 0 · noballs: 6 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Kagiso Rabada3 maidens · 0 wides · 3 no-balls | 21.0 | 3 | 63 | 2 | 3.00 | 0 | 3 |
 Marco Jansen1 maidens · 0 wides · 2 no-balls | 10.1 | 1 | 54 | 1 | 5.31 | 0 | 2 |
 Keshav Maharaj3 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 25.0 | 3 | 76 | 5 | 3.04 | 0 | 0 |
 Dane Paterson3 maidens · 0 wides · 1 no-balls | 12.0 | 3 | 33 | 2 | 2.75 | 0 | 1 |
 Aiden Markram0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 6.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-10 (Dimuth Karunaratne, 2.2) · 2-47 (Pathum Nissanka, 12.3) · 3-64 (Dinesh Chandimal, 21.0) · 4-117 (Angelo Mathews, 31.5) · 5-122 (Kamindu Mendis, 33.1) · 6-219 (Kusal Mendis, 59.0) · 7-225 (Dhananjaya de Silva, 61.3) · 8-233 (Prabath Jayasuriya, 65.0) · 9-238 (Vishwa Fernando, 68.5) · 10-238 (Lahiru Kumara, 69.1)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | 4/0 |
| 2 | 6 | 10/0 |
| 3 | 0 | 10/1 |
| 4 | 0 | 10/1 |
| 5 | 2 | 12/1 |
| 6 | 4 | 16/1 |
| 7 | 0 | 16/1 |
| 8 | 13 | 29/1 |
| 9 | 4 | 33/1 |
| 10 | 2 | 35/1 |
| 11 | 0 | 35/1 |
| 12 | 9 | 44/1 |
| 13 | 3 | 47/2 |
| 14 | 1 | 48/2 |
| 15 | 2 | 50/2 |
| 16 | 5 | 55/2 |
| 17 | 4 | 59/2 |
| 18 | 1 | 60/2 |
| 19 | 0 | 60/2 |
| 20 | 4 | 64/2 |
| 21 | 0 | 64/3 |
| 22 | 4 | 68/3 |
| 23 | 5 | 73/3 |
| 24 | 2 | 75/3 |
| 25 | 5 | 80/3 |
| 26 | 2 | 82/3 |
| 27 | 10 | 92/3 |
| 28 | 3 | 95/3 |
| 29 | 8 | 103/3 |
| 30 | 8 | 111/3 |
| 31 | 5 | 116/3 |
| 32 | 1 | 117/4 |
| 33 | 5 | 122/4 |
| 34 | 4 | 126/5 |
| 35 | 5 | 131/5 |
| 36 | 0 | 131/5 |
| 37 | 3 | 134/5 |
| 38 | 9 | 143/5 |
| 39 | 5 | 148/5 |
| 40 | 5 | 153/5 |
| 41 | 4 | 157/5 |
| 42 | 0 | 157/5 |
| 43 | 4 | 161/5 |
| 44 | 5 | 166/5 |
| 45 | 1 | 167/5 |
| 46 | 3 | 170/5 |
| 47 | 11 | 181/5 |
| 48 | 2 | 183/5 |
| 49 | 6 | 189/5 |
| 50 | 7 | 196/5 |
| 51 | 3 | 199/5 |
| 52 | 6 | 205/5 |
| 53 | 2 | 207/5 |
| 54 | 1 | 208/5 |
| 55 | 1 | 209/5 |
| 56 | 5 | 214/5 |
| 57 | 2 | 216/5 |
| 58 | 0 | 216/5 |
| 59 | 3 | 219/6 |
| 60 | 3 | 222/6 |
| 61 | 1 | 223/6 |
| 62 | 2 | 225/7 |
| 63 | 3 | 228/7 |
| 64 | 4 | 232/7 |
| 65 | 1 | 233/8 |
| 66 | 2 | 235/8 |
| 67 | 0 | 235/8 |
| 68 | 2 | 237/8 |
| 69 | 1 | 238/9 |
| 70 | 0 | 238/10 |
Ryan Rickelton: Dave Morton · Public domain
Angelo Mathews: paddynapper · CC BY-SA 2.0
Temba Bavuma: Michael Sherman · CC BY 3.0
Marco Jansen: Storm machine · CC BY-SA 4.0
Aiden Markram: Marcel Sigg · CC0
Vishwa Fernando: Dave Morton · Public domain
Keshav Maharaj: Dave Morton · Public domain
Dane Paterson: Dave Morton · Public domain
Dinesh Chandimal: Amal316 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Kagiso Rabada: Blue Square Thing · CC BY-SA 4.0
Dimuth Karunaratne: Dave Morton · Public domain
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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