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Photo: Ji-Elle
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY-SA 3.0
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New Zealand tour of Sri Lanka · 2024 · Men
18 Sept 2024 · Test
Galle International Stadium · Venue photographRecorded result
New Zealand more likely to win
Model tested on 119 past Tests it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings, plus how often Tests at this ground end in a draw. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Tom Lathamcaught · S Samarawickrama · Prabath Jayasuriya6 fours · 0 sixes | caught · S Samarawickrama · b Prabath Jayasuriya | 70 | 111 | 6 | 0 | 63.06 |
| Devon Conwaylbw · Ramesh Mendis 1 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Ramesh Mendis | 17 | 59 | 1 | 0 | 28.81 |
 Kane Williamsoncaught · Kusal Mendis · Dhananjaya de Silva4 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Kusal Mendis · b Dhananjaya de Silva | 55 | 104 | 4 | 1 | 52.88 |
 |
| bowled · b Dhananjaya de Silva |
| 39 |
| 48 |
| 4 |
| 0 |
| 81.25 |
| Daryl Mitchellrun out · Kusal Mendis, Ramesh Mendis · Prabath Jayasuriya 7 fours · 1 sixes | run out · Kusal Mendis, Ramesh Mendis | 57 | 86 | 7 | 1 | 66.28 |
|---|
 Tom Blundellcaught · Dhananjaya de Silva · Prabath Jayasuriya1 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Dhananjaya de Silva · b Prabath Jayasuriya | 25 | 65 | 1 | 1 | 38.46 |
|---|
| Glenn Phillipsnot out 2 fours · 5 sixes | not out | 49* | 48 | 2 | 5 | 102.08 |
|---|
| Mitchell Santnercaught · Kusal Mendis · Prabath Jayasuriya 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Kusal Mendis · b Prabath Jayasuriya | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
 Tim Southeebowled · Prabath Jayasuriya0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Prabath Jayasuriya | 3 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 30.00 |
|---|
 Ajaz Patellbw · Ramesh Mendis1 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Ramesh Mendis | 6 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
 William O’Rourkebowled · Ramesh Mendis0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Ramesh Mendis | 2 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 25.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 8 · legbyes: 3 · wides: 2 · noballs: 2 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asitha Fernando1 maidens · 2 wides · 1 no-balls | 7.0 | 1 | 25 | 0 | 3.57 | 2 | 1 |
| Lahiru Kumara5 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 12.0 | 5 | 28 | 0 | 2.33 | 0 | 0 |
| Dhananjaya de Silva0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 7.0 | 0 | 31 | 2 | 4.43 | 0 | 0 |
| Ramesh Mendis1 maidens · 0 wides · 1 no-balls | 23.5 | 1 | 101 | 3 | 4.24 | 0 | 1 |
| Prabath Jayasuriya5 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 40.0 | 5 | 136 | 4 | 3.40 | 0 | 0 |
| Kamindu Mendis0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 8.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-63 (Devon Conway, 18.4) · 2-136 (Tom Latham, 38.4) · 3-187 (Kane Williamson, 52.4) · 4-196 (Rachin Ravindra, 54.5) · 5-269 (Tom Blundell, 76.0) · 6-291 (Daryl Mitchell, 81.3) · 7-293 (Mitchell Santner, 81.5) · 8-297 (Tim Southee, 83.5) · 9-304 (Ajaz Patel, 85.0) · 10-340 (William O’Rourke, 90.5)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | 5/0 |
| 2 | 3 | 8/0 |
| 3 | 12 | 20/0 |
| 4 | 0 | 20/0 |
| 5 | 4 | 24/0 |
| 6 | 0 | 24/0 |
| 7 | 4 | 28/0 |
| 8 | 1 | 29/0 |
| 9 | 6 | 35/0 |
| 10 | 3 | 38/0 |
| 11 | 1 | 39/0 |
| 12 | 3 | 42/0 |
| 13 | 0 | 42/0 |
| 14 | 6 | 48/0 |
| 15 | 6 | 54/0 |
| 16 | 4 | 58/0 |
| 17 | 1 | 59/0 |
| 18 | 3 | 62/0 |
| 19 | 2 | 64/1 |
| 20 | 2 | 66/1 |
| 21 | 4 | 70/1 |
| 22 | 7 | 77/1 |
| 23 | 10 | 87/1 |
| 24 | 6 | 93/1 |
| 25 | 3 | 96/1 |
| 26 | 8 | 104/1 |
| 27 | 3 | 107/1 |
| 28 | 5 | 112/1 |
| 29 | 8 | 120/1 |
| 30 | 1 | 121/1 |
| 31 | 5 | 126/1 |
| 32 | 0 | 126/1 |
| 33 | 2 | 128/1 |
| 34 | 2 | 130/1 |
| 35 | 3 | 133/1 |
| 36 | 2 | 135/1 |
| 37 | 1 | 136/1 |
| 38 | 0 | 136/1 |
| 39 | 1 | 137/2 |
| 40 | 8 | 145/2 |
| 41 | 3 | 148/2 |
| 42 | 6 | 154/2 |
| 43 | 4 | 158/2 |
| 44 | 0 | 158/2 |
| 45 | 3 | 161/2 |
| 46 | 2 | 163/2 |
| 47 | 2 | 165/2 |
| 48 | 6 | 171/2 |
| 49 | 2 | 173/2 |
| 50 | 3 | 176/2 |
| 51 | 3 | 179/2 |
| 52 | 6 | 185/2 |
| 53 | 3 | 188/3 |
| 54 | 4 | 192/3 |
| 55 | 4 | 196/4 |
| 56 | 4 | 200/4 |
| 57 | 5 | 205/4 |
| 58 | 0 | 205/4 |
| 59 | 8 | 213/4 |
| 60 | 0 | 213/4 |
| 61 | 3 | 216/4 |
| 62 | 2 | 218/4 |
| 63 | 4 | 222/4 |
| 64 | 1 | 223/4 |
| 65 | 3 | 226/4 |
| 66 | 2 | 228/4 |
| 67 | 7 | 235/4 |
| 68 | 0 | 235/4 |
| 69 | 5 | 240/4 |
| 70 | 9 | 249/4 |
| 71 | 1 | 250/4 |
| 72 | 5 | 255/4 |
| 73 | 0 | 255/4 |
| 74 | 0 | 255/4 |
| 75 | 5 | 260/4 |
| 76 | 9 | 269/5 |
| 77 | 11 | 280/5 |
| 78 | 0 | 280/5 |
| 79 | 2 | 282/5 |
| 80 | 1 | 283/5 |
| 81 | 8 | 291/5 |
| 82 | 2 | 293/7 |
| 83 | 2 | 295/7 |
| 84 | 4 | 299/8 |
| 85 | 5 | 304/9 |
| 86 | 7 | 311/9 |
| 87 | 13 | 324/9 |
| 88 | 1 | 325/9 |
| 89 | 1 | 326/9 |
| 90 | 13 | 339/9 |
| 91 | 1 | 340/10 |
Angelo Mathews: paddynapper · CC BY-SA 2.0
Ajaz Patel: Dave Morton · Public domain
William O’Rourke: Dave Morton · Public domain
Dinesh Chandimal: Amal316 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Rachin Ravindra: JaumeBG · CC BY-SA 4.0
Tom Latham: Robert Drummond · CC0
Tim Southee: YellowMonkey/Blnguyen · CC BY-SA 4.0
Dimuth Karunaratne: Dave Morton · Public domain
Kane Williamson: Mark Lockett · CC BY-SA 2.0
Tom Blundell: www.davidmolloyphotography.com · CC BY 2.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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