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New Zealand tour of Sri Lanka · 2024 · Men
18 Sept 2024 · Test
Galle International Stadium · Venue photographRecorded result
New Zealand more likely to win
Model tested on 119 past Tests it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings, plus how often Tests at this ground end in a draw. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pathum Nissankabowled · William O’Rourke 5 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b William O’Rourke | 27 | 25 | 5 | 0 | 108.00 |
 Dimuth Karunaratnecaught · Tom Blundell · William O’Rourke0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Tom Blundell · b William O’Rourke | 2 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 25.00 |
 Dinesh Chandimalcaught · MG Bracewell · Tim Southee3 fours · 0 sixes | caught · MG Bracewell · b Tim Southee | 30 | 71 | 3 | 0 | 42.25 |
 |
| caught · Tom Blundell · b William O’Rourke |
| 36 |
| 116 |
| 3 |
| 0 |
| 31.03 |
| Kamindu Mendiscaught · Daryl Mitchell · Ajaz Patel 11 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Daryl Mitchell · b Ajaz Patel | 114 | 173 | 11 | 0 | 65.90 |
|---|
| Dhananjaya de Silvabowled · Glenn Phillips 2 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Glenn Phillips | 11 | 24 | 2 | 0 | 45.83 |
|---|
| Kusal Mendiscaught · Tim Southee · Glenn Phillips 7 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Tim Southee · b Glenn Phillips | 50 | 68 | 7 | 0 | 73.53 |
|---|
| Ramesh Mendislbw · William O’Rourke 2 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b William O’Rourke | 14 | 49 | 2 | 0 | 28.57 |
|---|
| Prabath Jayasuriyalbw · Ajaz Patel 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Ajaz Patel | 0 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Lahiru Kumaranot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 2* | 2 | 0 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
| Asitha Fernandobowled · William O’Rourke 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b William O’Rourke | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 12 · legbyes: 2 · wides: 1 · noballs: 4 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Tim Southee2 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 14.0 | 2 | 48 | 1 | 3.43 | 0 | 0 |
 William O’Rourke4 maidens · 1 wides · 4 no-balls | 18.5 | 4 | 55 | 5 | 2.92 | 1 | 4 |
 Ajaz Patel4 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 20.0 | 4 | 60 | 2 | 3.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Mitchell Santner2 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 19.0 | 2 | 64 | 0 | 3.37 | 0 | 0 |
| Glenn Phillips0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 18.0 | 0 | 52 | 2 | 2.89 | 0 | 0 |
 Rachin Ravindra0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 12 | 0 | 6.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-20 (Dimuth Karunaratne, 4.0) · 2-33 (Pathum Nissanka, 6.0) · 3-88 (Dinesh Chandimal, 28.4) · 4-106 (Dhananjaya de Silva, 34.2) · 5-178 (Angelo Mathews, 55.3) · 6-281 (Kusal Mendis, 78.2) · 7-302 (Kamindu Mendis, 86.1) · 8-303 (Prabath Jayasuriya, 90.4) · 9-305 (Ramesh Mendis, 91.1) · 10-305 (Asitha Fernando, 91.5)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | 7/0 |
| 2 | 2 | 9/0 |
| 3 | 6 | 15/0 |
| 4 | 5 | 20/1 |
| 5 | 3 | 23/1 |
| 6 | 10 | 33/2 |
| 7 | 0 | 33/2 |
| 8 | 8 | 41/2 |
| 9 | 2 | 43/2 |
| 10 | 1 | 44/2 |
| 11 | 4 | 48/2 |
| 12 | 2 | 50/2 |
| 13 | 0 | 50/2 |
| 14 | 4 | 54/2 |
| 15 | 1 | 55/2 |
| 16 | 0 | 55/2 |
| 17 | 0 | 55/2 |
| 18 | 1 | 56/2 |
| 19 | 2 | 58/2 |
| 20 | 6 | 64/2 |
| 21 | 1 | 65/2 |
| 22 | 1 | 66/2 |
| 23 | 2 | 68/2 |
| 24 | 1 | 69/2 |
| 25 | 2 | 71/2 |
| 26 | 6 | 77/2 |
| 27 | 5 | 82/2 |
| 28 | 6 | 88/2 |
| 29 | 0 | 88/3 |
| 30 | 1 | 89/3 |
| 31 | 4 | 93/3 |
| 32 | 4 | 97/3 |
| 33 | 2 | 99/3 |
| 34 | 6 | 105/3 |
| 35 | 3 | 108/4 |
| 36 | 1 | 109/4 |
| 37 | 5 | 114/4 |
| 38 | 1 | 115/4 |
| 39 | 3 | 118/4 |
| 40 | 9 | 127/4 |
| 41 | 1 | 128/4 |
| 42 | 1 | 129/4 |
| 43 | 1 | 130/4 |
| 44 | 6 | 136/4 |
| 45 | 4 | 140/4 |
| 46 | 13 | 153/4 |
| 47 | 1 | 154/4 |
| 48 | 1 | 155/4 |
| 49 | 2 | 157/4 |
| 50 | 4 | 161/4 |
| 51 | 4 | 165/4 |
| 52 | 2 | 167/4 |
| 53 | 3 | 170/4 |
| 54 | 7 | 177/4 |
| 55 | 1 | 178/4 |
| 56 | 0 | 178/5 |
| 57 | 1 | 179/5 |
| 58 | 3 | 182/5 |
| 59 | 5 | 187/5 |
| 60 | 0 | 187/5 |
| 61 | 4 | 191/5 |
| 62 | 7 | 198/5 |
| 63 | 5 | 203/5 |
| 64 | 3 | 206/5 |
| 65 | 8 | 214/5 |
| 66 | 1 | 215/5 |
| 67 | 7 | 222/5 |
| 68 | 12 | 234/5 |
| 69 | 4 | 238/5 |
| 70 | 6 | 244/5 |
| 71 | 1 | 245/5 |
| 72 | 6 | 251/5 |
| 73 | 6 | 257/5 |
| 74 | 5 | 262/5 |
| 75 | 2 | 264/5 |
| 76 | 7 | 271/5 |
| 77 | 4 | 275/5 |
| 78 | 5 | 280/5 |
| 79 | 2 | 282/6 |
| 80 | 4 | 286/6 |
| 81 | 1 | 287/6 |
| 82 | 1 | 288/6 |
| 83 | 10 | 298/6 |
| 84 | 0 | 298/6 |
| 85 | 1 | 299/6 |
| 86 | 3 | 302/6 |
| 87 | 0 | 302/7 |
| 88 | 0 | 302/7 |
| 89 | 0 | 302/7 |
| 90 | 1 | 303/7 |
| 91 | 2 | 305/8 |
| 92 | 0 | 305/10 |
Angelo Mathews: paddynapper · CC BY-SA 2.0
Ajaz Patel: Dave Morton · Public domain
William O’Rourke: Dave Morton · Public domain
Dinesh Chandimal: Amal316 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Rachin Ravindra: JaumeBG · CC BY-SA 4.0
Tom Latham: Robert Drummond · CC0
Tim Southee: YellowMonkey/Blnguyen · CC BY-SA 4.0
Dimuth Karunaratne: Dave Morton · Public domain
Kane Williamson: Mark Lockett · CC BY-SA 2.0
Tom Blundell: www.davidmolloyphotography.com · CC BY 2.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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