Sri LankaversusNew Zealand

18 Sept 2024 · Test

Galle International Stadium · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Sri Lanka won by 63 runs

Sri Lanka91.5 overs305/10 New Zealand90.5 overs340/10 Sri Lanka94.2 overs309/10 New Zealand71.4 overs211/10 Galle International Stadium ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

New Zealand more likely to win

40%Sri Lanka11%Draw49%New Zealand

Why

Sri Lanka are playing at home in Sri Lanka
In the last 10 Tests between these sides, New Zealand won 8 and Sri Lanka won 1 (1 drawn)
On results in Tests so far, New Zealand rate stronger than Sri Lanka (1,587 vs 1,501 on our results rating)

Model tested on 119 past Tests it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings, plus how often Tests at this ground end in a draw. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.