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New Zealand tour of Sri Lanka · 2024 · Men
18 Sept 2024 · Test
Galle International Stadium · Venue photographRecorded result
New Zealand more likely to win
Model tested on 119 past Tests it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings, plus how often Tests at this ground end in a draw. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Innings 4
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Tom Lathamlbw · Dhananjaya de Silva2 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Dhananjaya de Silva | 28 | 68 | 2 | 0 | 41.18 |
| Devon Conwaybowled · Asitha Fernando 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Asitha Fernando | 4 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 57.14 |
 Kane Williamsonstumped · Kusal Mendis · Prabath Jayasuriya3 fours · 1 sixes | stumped · Kusal Mendis · b Prabath Jayasuriya | 30 | 46 | 3 | 1 | 65.22 |
 |
| lbw · b Prabath Jayasuriya |
| 92 |
| 168 |
| 9 |
| 1 |
| 54.76 |
| Daryl Mitchellbowled · Ramesh Mendis 1 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Ramesh Mendis | 8 | 26 | 1 | 0 | 30.77 |
|---|
 Tom Blundellbowled · Prabath Jayasuriya4 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Prabath Jayasuriya | 30 | 43 | 4 | 0 | 69.77 |
|---|
| Glenn Phillipscaught · Kamindu Mendis · Prabath Jayasuriya 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Kamindu Mendis · b Prabath Jayasuriya | 4 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 28.57 |
|---|
| Mitchell Santnercaught · Pathum Nissanka · Ramesh Mendis 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Pathum Nissanka · b Ramesh Mendis | 2 | 22 | 0 | 0 | 9.09 |
|---|
 Tim Southeelbw · Ramesh Mendis0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Ramesh Mendis | 2 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 22.22 |
|---|
 Ajaz Patelnot out0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 2* | 22 | 0 | 0 | 9.09 |
|---|
 William O’Rourkebowled · Prabath Jayasuriya0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Prabath Jayasuriya | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 6 · legbyes: 2 · wides: 0 · noballs: 1 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ramesh Mendis3 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 25.0 | 3 | 83 | 3 | 3.32 | 0 | 0 |
| Asitha Fernando0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 2.50 | 0 | 0 |
| Prabath Jayasuriya7 maidens · 0 wides · 1 no-balls | 30.4 | 7 | 68 | 5 | 2.22 | 0 | 1 |
| Dhananjaya de Silva4 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 12.0 | 4 | 32 | 1 | 2.67 | 0 | 0 |
| Lahiru Kumara0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 15 | 0 | 7.50 | 0 | 0 |
1-6 (Devon Conway, 1.4) · 2-51 (Kane Williamson, 16.2) · 3-68 (Tom Latham, 22.5) · 4-96 (Daryl Mitchell, 32.3) · 5-152 (Tom Blundell, 46.1) · 6-171 (Glenn Phillips, 51.5) · 7-197 (Mitchell Santner, 61.2) · 8-203 (Tim Southee, 63.3) · 9-209 (Rachin Ravindra, 69.3) · 10-211 (William O’Rourke, 71.4)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | 4/0 |
| 2 | 4 | 8/1 |
| 3 | 2 | 10/1 |
| 4 | 1 | 11/1 |
| 5 | 2 | 13/1 |
| 6 | 4 | 17/1 |
| 7 | 0 | 17/1 |
| 8 | 0 | 17/1 |
| 9 | 11 | 28/1 |
| 10 | 8 | 36/1 |
| 11 | 3 | 39/1 |
| 12 | 3 | 42/1 |
| 13 | 1 | 43/1 |
| 14 | 2 | 45/1 |
| 15 | 2 | 47/1 |
| 16 | 4 | 51/1 |
| 17 | 0 | 51/2 |
| 18 | 5 | 56/2 |
| 19 | 4 | 60/2 |
| 20 | 0 | 60/2 |
| 21 | 6 | 66/2 |
| 22 | 2 | 68/2 |
| 23 | 0 | 68/3 |
| 24 | 5 | 73/3 |
| 25 | 0 | 73/3 |
| 26 | 6 | 79/3 |
| 27 | 5 | 84/3 |
| 28 | 6 | 90/3 |
| 29 | 5 | 95/3 |
| 30 | 0 | 95/3 |
| 31 | 0 | 95/3 |
| 32 | 0 | 95/3 |
| 33 | 3 | 98/4 |
| 34 | 2 | 100/4 |
| 35 | 5 | 105/4 |
| 36 | 3 | 108/4 |
| 37 | 6 | 114/4 |
| 38 | 1 | 115/4 |
| 39 | 1 | 116/4 |
| 40 | 14 | 130/4 |
| 41 | 1 | 131/4 |
| 42 | 8 | 139/4 |
| 43 | 3 | 142/4 |
| 44 | 4 | 146/4 |
| 45 | 3 | 149/4 |
| 46 | 3 | 152/4 |
| 47 | 0 | 152/5 |
| 48 | 3 | 155/5 |
| 49 | 5 | 160/5 |
| 50 | 5 | 165/5 |
| 51 | 3 | 168/5 |
| 52 | 3 | 171/6 |
| 53 | 1 | 172/6 |
| 54 | 3 | 175/6 |
| 55 | 8 | 183/6 |
| 56 | 0 | 183/6 |
| 57 | 0 | 183/6 |
| 58 | 2 | 185/6 |
| 59 | 8 | 193/6 |
| 60 | 0 | 193/6 |
| 61 | 3 | 196/6 |
| 62 | 4 | 200/7 |
| 63 | 2 | 202/7 |
| 64 | 1 | 203/8 |
| 65 | 1 | 204/8 |
| 66 | 1 | 205/8 |
| 67 | 1 | 206/8 |
| 68 | 1 | 207/8 |
| 69 | 1 | 208/8 |
| 70 | 1 | 209/9 |
| 71 | 1 | 210/9 |
| 72 | 1 | 211/10 |
Angelo Mathews: paddynapper · CC BY-SA 2.0
Ajaz Patel: Dave Morton · Public domain
William O’Rourke: Dave Morton · Public domain
Dinesh Chandimal: Amal316 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Rachin Ravindra: JaumeBG · CC BY-SA 4.0
Tom Latham: Robert Drummond · CC0
Tim Southee: YellowMonkey/Blnguyen · CC BY-SA 4.0
Dimuth Karunaratne: Dave Morton · Public domain
Kane Williamson: Mark Lockett · CC BY-SA 2.0
Tom Blundell: www.davidmolloyphotography.com · CC BY 2.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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